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Leicester City are using “Moneyball” to win the Premier League

By Rucker Haringey

MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 06: Shinji Okazaki of Leicester City congratulates scorer of the first goal, Robert Huth during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and Leicester City at the Etihad Stadium on February 06, 2016 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images)
MANCHESTER, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 06: Shinji Okazaki of Leicester City congratulates scorer of the first goal, Robert Huth during the Barclays Premier League match between Manchester City and Leicester City at the Etihad Stadium on February 06, 2016 in Manchester, England. (Photo by Matthew Ashton - AMA/Getty Images) /
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Leicester City has a lot in common with Major League Baseball’s Oakland Athletics

Even the most optimistic Leicester City fans wouldn’t have predicted  them to occupy the top spot in the Premier League at this point in the season. Yet, that’s exactly where they are. The question about the Foxes is no longer are they doing it, it’s now how have they done it?

“Moneyball” author Michael Lewis and former Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane would love the construction of this Leicester side. What manager Claudio Ranieri and the higher-ups at the club have constructed is the Premier League version of what the A’s used in the famed book “Moneyball.”

The guiding principle of “Moneyball” is that the organization must find a way to acquire assets that are undervalued by their competitors. The A’s did this by focusing on what they believed to be undervalued baseball statistics like on base percentage. Leicester has employed the same principles by building a roster full of players that fit their playing style better than anyone else’s.

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First, there’s the obvious fact that they employ a 4-4-2 formation when the vast majority of other Premier League clubs have switched to the more continental 4-2-3-1. Playing with a 4-4-2 is widely looked down upon by the football world’s elite as an outdated system. If it’s so outdated, then how have Leicester ridden in to the top of the Premier League table?

The importance of the Foxes formation goes past just the advantage of doing something tactically different than what Premier League opponents see every other week. There is some value in that, just as American football sides that employ an option offense have a tactical advantage over their opponents, but the value of Leicester’s implementation of the 4-4-2 goes well beyond the value of just being a different look on match day.

Their decision to play 4-4-2, and to commit their roster construction to it, allows them to buy players who are great in their system, but aren’t necessarily great for anyone else in the Premier League. This subtlety is quite apparent when you take a look at Leicester’s attacking stars.

Foxes star Riyad Mahrez is one of the most obvious examples of this line of thinking. He thrives playing out on the wing in the 4-4-2. The freedom Ranieri allows him out on the flank is a big reason he’s been able to score 14 goals and chip in 10 assists on the campaign. His positioning also means he isn’t overly burdened with defensive responsibilities. His lack of defensive contribution might be more of an issue for a squad that employed a more standard 4-2-3-1.

The 4-4-2 also plays a huge role in establishing value for Leicester’s striking options. Jamie Vardy is a star who would score goals for any Premier League club, but the men Ranieri deploys as second strikers alongside Vardy draw a huge portion of their value from the formation.

Shinji Okazaki and Leonardo Ulloa would struggle mightily to get on the field for most other Premier League clubs. It’s not that either of them are bad player per se, but they are really only useful as second strikers. It greatly limits their value across the League.

At Leicester, their value is maximized. They don’t care that Ulloa or Okazaki can’t play as single strikers because they’d never ask either of them to fill that role. The use of two strikers allows Leicester to employ players like Ulloa and Okazaki effectively. Few other Premier League clubs would assign them much value at all.

Their defensive forces also draw significant value, not from the formation that Leicester employs, but rather from their style of play. The Foxes are quite happy to play on the counter attack whereas the majority of their Premier League competitors want to dominate possession.

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Teams that want to dominate possession tend to want their centre backs to play with high lines to compress the opponent’s ability to possess the ball in their half. In sharp contrast, Leicester is more than happy to let opponents possess the ball. They just care about out scoring opponents, not having more time on the ball.

That’s music to the ears of Leicester centre backs Robert Huth and Wes Morgan. If we’re honest with ourselves, neither of them is blessed with a ton of natural talent and athleticism. Despite that, they’ve formed a really solid centre back partnership for the Foxes this season.

Leicester’s willingness to sit back and play on the counter is crucial to Huth and Morgan’s success. They are allowed to sit deep and play with the opposition in front of them the vast majority of the time. This totally negates any potential issues with their lack of athleticism and foot speed. It allows Leicester to start two centre backs every week that would be seen as huge liabilities at other Premier League clubs.

Related Story: Leicester showed real intent in the transfer market

Leicester City has managed to gain a strong lead at the top of the Premier League title for several reasons. One huge piece of the puzzle though has to be the way they’ve constructed their roster. They’ve applied “Moneyball” principles to football and it’s helped them shock the football world.

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