Is the Bundesliga Europe’s most exciting league?

There will not be a title race in the Bundesliga, but the margins separating the bottom 16 clubs from each other will make almost every match a six-pointer.

Welcome to Germany: the home of Volkswagen, BMW, and the frankfurter. And now, the home of arguably Europe’s most exciting race for two Champions League berths.

If England didn’t have six evenly matched teams at the top of the table fighting for not only the title, but four Champions League spots, the Bundesliga would be getting a lot more attention. The quality in Germany doesn’t match the quality of England – and that goes for all the way up and down the table, except for maybe Bayern – but the amount of meaningful matches for both teams that we will be seeing is unparalleled.

Behind Bayern Munich and Dortmund (who have been underwhelming so far) are 16 hungry clubs looking to propel themselves to new heights. While teams like Borussia Monchengladbach, Bayer Leverkusen, Schalke, and Wolfsburg have shown their quality in recent years, this may be the year for others to step up.

Last season, Mainz and Hertha Berlin enjoyed spells near the top of the table and fought for the top four until the very end, ultimately falling short in 6^th and 7^th place respectively. It took until after Christmas for Leverkusen and Monchengladbach to settle down and solidify themselves as contenders for the top four. This could all happen again, and I could look back on this and dwell on how ridiculous I was. However, at this moment, it wouldn’t be right to assume that it will.

Berlin and Cologne occupy 2^nd and 4^th positions currently. While it is not uncommon to see bad teams go on a hot streak, or for the table to look weird at the start of the season, the results these teams have had will not continue if they continue to play like they are. They are both in the bottom third in the league in shot differential and shot in box differential, which you can find at Football in the Cloud.

As you can see there, Cologne has flourished through a straight up farcical bit of goalkeeping (89.3 SV %), whereas Berlin are where they’re at because of hot finishing. Two different stories for two teams that will likely drop down the table soon, but will ultimately get a lucky result from time to time because of the increased likelihood of one bounce of the ball making a major difference in the strange, evenly contested Bundesliga.

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At the other end of table is poor Ingolstadt, who are in 17^th and yet to win a game despite performances deserving of the top half. It would be harsh for that to continue, and I’d expect them to start seeing some results soon.

Besides Bayern, there is one team that has gotten results early on in the season, and are not out too far of place in the table when looking at stats: 5^th placed Leipzig. Look here again, sort some of the columns, and you will see Leipzig a clear second in many categories, even rivaling Bayern Munich at times. Leipzig is doing this despite having a shooting % and save % worse than league average. They are certainly going to be a team to watch, and if they were to find themselves competing for a Champions League berth at the end of the season, I would not be surprised at all.

I expect the Bundesliga to be full of surprises throughout the season, with the table changing drastically week after week. At least 14 teams should realistically believe they have a chance at top four, while about the same amount of teams will also have the threat of relegation in the back of their minds. Good luck predicting that. One or two hot streaks (that may or may not be chalked up to luck) may save or make the season for quite a few teams. You certainly don’t want to miss it.