How Manchester City are better than you think they are

With a recent run of less than impressive results, many have started to question whether Manchester City aren’t actually regressing under Pep Guardiola. We examine how it could well be the very opposite.

It’s an unusually competitive Premier League this year, don’t you think? From top to bottom, there honestly doesn’t seem to be any lame duck teams, West Ham excluded, and little separates the top four in quality. The footballing powers that be deigned that the shame of Leicester City winning the title must not be allowed to happen  again and thus Leicester are back to mediocrity and suddenly the top teams are good again. Except United, of course.

For Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, things don’t seem to be so straightforward. Following a league record-matching 10 game winning streak at the start of the season, City’s form has been fair to middling. Or so it would seem at least. The narrative painted by a click/purchase hungry media, and, swallowed wholesale by Pep naysayers of all varieties, is that actually the Blues have in many ways regressed further than in previous years.

Many a counter-argument exists. For example, Pep never promised instant success, indeed, during the win streak he himself stated the losses would come and it would take time. This is far from surprising, teaching players a new system and style of both play and thought isn’t something that happens in a week, a month, or potentially even a season. It takes time, but when it comes it’s a sight to behold. On the flip-side, it’s always possible that the personnel Guardiola has at his disposal simply aren’t up to the job and that too will take time to rectify.

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That said, I’d like to just throw this one idea out there – Manchester City not only haven’t regressed, they are playing better than ever. The losses came as Guardiola predicted but the standard of football shows little sign of abating. So why isn’t this being reflected in results, which only seem to be falling less and less in City’s favor, and how can it be rectified?

To answer these questions, let’s look at the Chelsea game last Saturday. 1-3 is a pretty heavy and embarrassing capitulation, compounded by the sending off of two of their best players, for the home side, but behind the scoreline lies the fruits of Pep’s labor.

City, according to some, were the better team in the game and statistical evidence seems to indicate that to be the case. Guardiola’s side, as one would expect, bossed possession to the tune of 61% overall. Looking at the game in 5-minute blocks, in only 25 minutes of the game did City not see more of the ball than Chelsea and none of the goals came during that period. Indeed, Chelsea scored during periods in which the home side were enjoying 75-80% possession and controlling the game. All came from on the break.

That aside, look at any actually worthwhile statistic from the game and Manchester City come out on top handily.  City made considerably more passes (541 to 366) yet remarkably had a higher pass completion percentage (84 to 74). Lest you say this was just typical tiki-taka passing around the defense/midfield without going anywhere, City also made more key passes into goal scoring opportunities (12 to 9) and had a ridiculously large number of corners too (9 to 2). As if these stats didn’t make it obvious, a majority of the game was played in the Chelsea half with the hosts pressing, yet ultimately failing, to find the back of the net.

And there’s the rub. Manchester City have been dominant but not clinical, brilliant yet blunt. A seeming contradiction yet that’s how it’s been. Up until the final third everything appears to be exactly what Pep could want, yet in front of goal it all seems to be falling apart. Sergio Aguero, among the best natural centre-forwards around, has brought his struggles for  international form into the domestic arena. Kevin De Bruyne, brilliant though he may be, missed a sitter that you or I could have scored with ease which ultimately turned the tide of the game. Others too aren’t producing. It’s just not happening for City right now.

Plenty is made of Manchester City’s defensive woes, and yes, this is doubtless a problem that Pep will be looking to correct. That said, I feel that a bigger issue is at the other end of the park for, if City were converting their chances at a more normal rate, they would be streets ahead of the competition. Yes, possession and other statistics don’t mean much on their own, but put them together with a high, or even normal, shots to goals ratio and you’ve got a juggernaut.

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With this, three points every game at the Etihad doesn’t look so far away. There are no problems with the manager. Few issues remaining with his style of play. No “regression” to be seen here. The foundations are there and the finishing pieces will do the trick. Meanwhile, Pep and Citizens alike can be comforted that, quietly, their team is actually much better than you’d think.