5 reasons Manchester City will catch Chelsea

Squad depth

It’s no secret that City’s European commitments mean they carry a greater risk of fatigue as the fixtures pile up in the second half of the season, while Chelsea – uncharacteristically absent from the Champions League this year – have their attention firmly fixed another domestic triumph.

City also have the numbers to handle it, though, having reinforced practically every area of their squad in the summer (the sole exception being upfront, where they still rely heavily on Aguero). Where fitness issues creep in – where form goes south – Pep can happily swap out Sterling for Sane, or Stones for Otamendi from one game to the next, without having to worry about a significant drop in quality.

Conte, meanwhile, has already been reduced to filling up his subs bench with inexperienced academy players and a smattering of misfits, most of whom are likely to depart the league leaders, if not in January, then at season’s end. Chelsea might have a more favourable schedule than the chasing pack, but it’s not a physical collapse that should worry the Blues boss. With nobody threatening their place in the side, it would be all too easy for his star players to take their foot off the gas – and, without much in way of reinforcements, injuries to Costa or Hazard could be fatal.

For precedent, look at the effect Jordan Henderson’s suspension had on the final stages of Liverpool’s doomed title challenge in 2014 (granted, Gerrard’s ill-timed slip had a lot to do with it as well).