Manchester City could win the Champions League but probably won't

Following Manchester City’s euphoric Champions League victory over Monaco, many pundits have come public over their belief City cannot win the competition. They may be right, but not necessarily.

Roy Coyle, a former Northern Ireland international footballer turned manager, once got all sorts of plaudits for coining a very catchy and uncharacteristically deep phrase; “if you think you can, you might, if you think you can’t, you’re right.” Now, back in the 90s when he said this, there was no such thing as Google, hard to believe I know, so the media and public lapped it up.

Now we can search and see he stole that line from Henry Ford and changed it slightly so it rhymes. Nonetheless, the gist came in to my head this morning while reflecting on Manchester City’s, frankly stunning, win over Monaco in the last 16 first round match of the Champions League last night.

City came from behind twice, conceding three goals in the process, to absolutely hammer Europe’s best scoring team with a final score of 5-3. It’s not often you let three away goals in and still look in a good position to progress, but that’s how crazy a game it was. City, for as dangerous and lethal as Monaco looked and were, dominated and became increasingly more menacing as Monaco became increasingly more exhausted.

A thrilling spectacle for all was had and plaudits were rightly given to players like Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling, Sergio Aguero and David Silva who all looked far too hot for the red and white back four to handle. The discussion didn’t end there though, because of course not, with many in the media taking things to the next level and tackling the obvious question – is there a chance Manchester City can actually go on to win the Champions League?

BBC Sport ran an editorial by Chris Waddle entitled “Man City are dangerous when brave – but they won’t win the Champions League”. ESPN TV pundits sat round a table and all, in turn, suggested Guardiola’s men were doomed to failure due to bad defending. BT Sport post-match commentators said much the same. One wonders why the question even needed to be asked, as it’s still so early on in the round, never mind the competition, and there should be more than enough talking points from the free-scoring match to discuss.

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Nonetheless, let’s join the melee somewhat and talk about City’s chances of winning the Champions League. Slim, most likely. Getting past Monaco, still a challenge regardless of the first leg advantage, is only the first step of a long road littered with tough opponents. Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Atletico Madrid, PSG to name a few. It would be quite an ask for lowly Manchester City to overcome the opposition and lift the trophy when said opposition is undoubtedly stronger on the whole. Not unthinkable though, certainly not impossible.

It’s bizarre seeing so many pundits nail their colours so publicly to the mast and state, outright, the Blues won’t win the Champions League. They probably said the same about Leicester winning the Premier League, a far, far more unlikely feat that seemed to just come as if by destiny.

Further, I’d argue there’s much for City fans to be hopeful about, if somewhat silently at present. For a start, let’s deal with this argument that City’s defence is too weak and thus they can’t win the Champions League. It’s certainly well founded, but it ignores a key element of the equation: Pep Guardiola’s football doesn’t require a good defence to be functional at a high level as it is essentially about out-scoring the opponent.

Pep has played many games, including in the Champions League, without any defenders at all on the pitch. His style of play can, as required, negate the requirement for their existence. “The best defence is a good offence” only tells half the story. Every outfield player on the park is ultimately used as a threat and positional routines are fluid and highly transitional. Possession is the primary means of self-preservation, passing and moving through carefully orchestrated triangular patterns through the park and forcing the opponents to chase the ball and retreat from positions.

That’s not to suggest Manchester City can go forward with a glass cannon and hope to succeed. Indeed, Monaco are no different and they’ve found they cannot quite make it work at this level so easily. But there’s a difference. Pep’s side have the quality and fortitude to maintain the high press and his continually attacking game for the full 90 minutes and more. The defensive handicap, perceived or otherwise, isn’t quite as large as made out and, even if it was, it’s effects are considerable minimalized against a team that can play effectively to their strengths.

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Will Manchester City win the Champions League? Probably not, but they have a good squad filled with exciting and supremely talented young stars in the making, a manager who can and will, ultimately, bring them the success they crave and, perhaps, an underdog status which leaves the door wide open to being underestimated. One thing’s for sure, City have to believe it is possible first before they can attempt to prove the doubters wrong. If they think they can, they might, if they think they can’t, their right.

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Manchester City could win the Champions League but probably won’t

By Stephen Little | Feb 23, 2017

Following Manchester City’s euphoric Champions League victory over Monaco, many pundits have come public over their belief City cannot win the competition. They may be right, but not necessarily.