After this weekend’s slate of games, preseason Western Conference favorite FC Dallas sits at eighth in the table. But here’s why they will ultimately make it.
Things may look bleak right now for FC Dallas as they have not won in two months. But even still, they are just one point behind the Houston Dynamo and San Jose Earthquakes for the final playoff spot. Furthermore, Real Salt Lake sits at fifth with 41 points but like San Jose have played two more games than FC Dallas and the Dynamo.
Currently the top four teams in the west are Vancouver, Portland, Sporting KC and Seattle. They all have been in good form lately and should be safe with 44-48 points. Which leaves the four teams above to compete for two spots. Here’s why FC Dallas will get one of them:
Schedule
The teams that FC Dallas has left are hardly imposing. They have two games left against the worst team in MLS in the Colorado Rapids; one home and one away. In between the two of them is a trip to Orlando City–second to last in the east. After a trip to Seattle the season finale will be at home against the struggling LA Galaxy.
While the teams are not the most imposing, the fact three of the five of them are on the road is concerning. FC Dallas is just 3-7-4 in road games this year so even playing bad teams can’t be considered an easy three points. But in addition to winning their two home games, they must get at least one win at Orlando or Colorado and salvage a point in the other (assuming they don’t get any at Seattle).
Real Salt Lake goes to LA and Colorado before finishing the year at home against Sporting KC. While it is not a hard stretch, it does limit their chances to earn points to pad their cushion.
San Jose has a brutal schedule to finish the year with games against Chicago and Portland before finishing the year at Vancouver.
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Houston has games against LA and Minnesota before a home and home with Sporting KC and then finishes the year against Chicago at home.
Experience
FC Dallas has players that have been there before and that will get them through this tough stretch. Max Urruti is one of the top forwards in MLS with 12 goals in just 27 games, already more than last season’s total. He was also on the MLS Cup winning Portland Timbers two years ago so he brings the veteran calm the team needs.
This team also won the US Open Cup last season, so they have been in big moments.
Conclusion
Ultimately I believe the two Texas teams will take the fifth and sixth spots in the west playoffs, barely beating out Real Salt Lake. As long as FC Dallas gets in, they could be a dangerous team. When they are on their game they can compete with anyone in the west.
Next: Why FC Dallas has struggled
In the end, last year the Seattle Sounders were just fourth in the west but had gotten hot by the end of the season and rode that momentum to their first MLS Cup. Coming into September last season Seattle was just 9-13-4 but went 5-1-2 from September on to ride through the playoffs. While FC Dallas doesn’t have that much time, they can still get it together and make a deep playoff run.