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Is the English Premier League becoming less competitive?

By Matt Townsend

LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 30: Gary Cahill of Chelsea and David Silva of Manchester City battle for possession during the Premier League match between Chelsea and Manchester City at Stamford Bridge on September 30, 2017 in London, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images)
LONDON, ENGLAND - SEPTEMBER 30: Gary Cahill of Chelsea and David Silva of Manchester City battle for possession during the Premier League match between Chelsea and Manchester City at Stamford Bridge on September 30, 2017 in London, England. (Photo by Mike Hewitt/Getty Images) /
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Is the English Premier League becoming less competitive now as the leading clubs in the country continue to get stronger in relation to the rest?

One of the key selling points of the Premier League in England is its alleged competitiveness and unpredictability in comparison to other European leagues like Spain or Germany. But is that actually the case anymore?

Although the fairy story title triumph of Leicester City was only two years ago, the more this season goes on the more the Premier League begins to resemble other European leagues.

In these leagues you have a dominant team or two, a small group of chasing clubs and the rest left well behind.

Manchester City are running away with the Premier League title setting a very high standard of attacking football in the process. The other group of five teams are fighting it out for second, third and fourth and those remaining Champions League places.

As for the remaining 14 teams they are battling for each point with relegation still mathematically possible for every side up to and including perhaps even Everton in ninth place. The gap between bottom club West Bromwich Albion and Burnley in seventh is just 17 points (source: BBC Sport ).

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This bunching up of teams is characteristic of other leagues such as Scotland’s Premiership, which is often derided as a uniquely uncompetitive and lopsided league.

However there is an increasing amount of similarity now between England’s top flight and Scotland. In the Scottish Premiership there is a difference of 16 points between Kilmarnock in fifth and bottom club Ross County. That’s remarkably similar to the Premier League.

Look also at the goal differences as another example. This season every Premier League side from Burnley in seventh to West Brom has a negative goal difference. In Scotland it’s every team from Kilmarnock in sixth to Ross County.

So might we be seeing the start of a process that means the Premier League becomes more like other domestic competitions in Europe?

Manchester City are perhaps beginning a long period of dominance that could last several seasons. Their main rivals are seemingly a long way off matching them at the moment. But you can pick who those other five clubs are with confidence every season.

It’s become a cliché often said that in the Premier League every team can beat every other team on their day. And that the bottom club can defeat the top club unlike in other leagues.

However while it’s true that it is just about possible to imagine that West Brom could beat Man City, (although that seems highly unlikely!) this claim is becoming increasingly impossible to sustain.

The vastly uneven goal differences mentioned above indicate the degree of imbalance between the leading clubs and those sides struggling further down the table.

The attacking quality and goal scoring potential of the leading sides is far greater than that of any of the teams outside that top six. Again this looks a lot like some other leagues around Europe.

And despite the vast amount of money that has been pumped into the English game in the past few years, this gulf seems to be getting wider.

Ironically perhaps the massive increase in spending power that all Premier League clubs have enjoyed is actually part of the reason for this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSSUOcuUego

While every club has been boosted with the increase in TV revenue this has only served to further increase and hugely inflate transfer fees.

When almost every club can pay 30 or 40 million pounds for a player other factors become decisive in persuading players to move teams. Factors such as the level of wages paid the media profile and perceived status of the club perhaps become even more important.

In an age where top players command mega bucks salaries and multi-million pound image rights, such elements have the potential to be decisive in deciding where a player ends up.

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And let’s not forget the growth of the ‘super-agent’, individuals who secure blockbuster transfers for their clients and of course reap huge financial benefit themselves.

All this means that in fact it’s becoming harder for those sides in the bottom half of the league to attract and hold onto quality talent.

That will only make the Premier League increasingly uncompetitive in the future.

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