Analysis: Why England shouldn’t be that excited about their 6-1 win

English fans are ecstatic about their 6-1 win over Panama. And why wouldn’t they be? This is the first time that England have scored more than 4 goals in a World Cup match since they won it all in 1966. This has to be their year, right?

To be fair, if the United States beat anyone 6-1, I’d be saying the same thing. But unfortunately I’m here writing articles and putting a damper on England’s parade instead of rooting for my own country.

Expectations are now at an all-time high after Sunday’s victory (and that’s really saying something considering we’re talking about England here), but those expectations are rooted naiveté and blind optimism.

It’s a result that surprised few, as England were obviously far superior to their Central American adversaries, but there’s a reason that Gareth Southgate wasn’t particularly pleased with his team’s performance.

Were England really clinical in front of goal?

English fans and pundits praised their team for how “clinical” they were in front of goal, but when you take a closer look at the goals themselves and the supporting statistics… They really weren’t.

Below is a tweet from Caley Graphics, an account run by Michael Caley, a writer for FiveThirtyEight, that specializes in making maps for “expected goals”. While the sums aren’t exact, an xG of 1.0 is cause for concern when you score 4 non-penalty goals in a match.

On John Stones’ first goal, he started from outside the box on a corner. None of Panama’s defenders decided to pick up his run, and Stones was gifted with a free header inside the box.

Now, usually getting a header past the keeper from the penalty spot is pretty difficult (headers are about twice as difficult to score than a regular shot from any area in the xG model, especially coming via a cross), but when you have all your momentum going towards goal and no defenders around you, it becomes a lot easier.

Next, Jesse Lingard earned a penalty (which Harry Kane converted beautifully), and then scored an absolute rocket from outside the box.

While it was a brilliant strike, the odds of scoring a goal from that position are quite low (about 3% to be exact), so you obviously can’t expect that to happen consistently.

Then it was Stones’ second goal, which produced the highest xG total of any of England’s six goals, but was once again the product of horrendous set-piece marking by Panama.

Jordan Henderson sent a ball across to the far post, but for some reason the only defenders that moved were the ones closest to the ball, while the others seemed to switch off. This left Sterling and Stones wide open to finish off the header sent back across the face of goal.

England’s final two goals came with Harry Kane completing his “hat-trick”. He converted another penalty after being taken down WWE-style by a Panamanian defender, and then happened to be in the way to deflect a shot from Ruben Loftus-Cheek into the back of the net. As you might have guessed, that one doesn’t have a very high goal probability either.

Belgium is the real test

So what this is all really saying is that England can’t expect to keep scoring goals like this. A 6-1 scoreline looks great on paper, but when it’s the result of blatant penalties, poor marking, a deflection, and a shot from an area where you only have a 3% chance of scoring, it’ll be unsustainable against even an above-average defense.

England won’t encounter defending anywhere close to Panama’s for the rest of the tournament, and if Romelu Lukaku is healthy, I fear that they’ll be exposed against a superior Belgium team on Thursday.

Let’s not forget that England needed a late, late winner to beat Tunisia, a team that Belgium just hammered 5-2 (with an xG total of 5.3).

The problem now is that English fans and media are making this team out to be something they’re not, and odds are it’s ultimately all going to end in disappointment.

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The expectations will continue to be as unrealistic as ever, and putting all this unnecessary pressure on the players can’t be good for them.

Conversations about whether or not Harry Kane is the best striker in the world are already popping up, and he’ll be expected to lead the Three Lions to World Cup glory after scoring what can only be assumed was one of the easiest hat-tricks in World Cup history.

England will now be expected to replicate this performance in every match from here on out, even though it was against a team that was just happy to even be at the World Cup in the first place.

But who knows, maybe I’m wrong? Maybe this is just what England needed to give them the momentum and confidence to actually make a deep run. Regardless, I’m just interested to see how it all plays out.

Next: Three things we learned from England's crushing of Panama

Who do you think will win – Belgium or England?