Russia vs. Spain: Hosts head back to Luzhniki looking to recapture opening day magic
Spain will be overwhelming favorites in its last 16 showdown with Russia; but in such a climate of unpredictability is another upset on the cards?
Route to the last 16
After a string of abortive results Russia kicked off the World Cup as the tournament’s lowest ranked side. However, either buoyed by the home crowd, Vladimir Putin’s presence, or a Robbie William’s classics compilation, they cruised to an impressive 5-0 victory against Saudi Arabia.
The same dynamism and physicality was evident in a second half blitz versus Egypt, as Russia, remarkably, racked up an 8-0 aggregate lead in less than two games.
Since then though the host nation’s allure has begun to fade after an OG and a sending off contributed to a sobering defeat at the expense of Uruguay.
Spain, meanwhile, finished top of group B, albeit with a little help from VAR and showing some defensive vulnerabilities along the way.
Their opening game against Portugal has been the game of the tournament so far, with positives taken from Fernando Hierro’s first match at the helm despite not getting the victory.
A narrow win against Iran and a draw versus Morocco stretched their unbeaten run to 23 games but did little to suggest a repeat of 2010 is on the cards.
The line-ups
Isco has been Spain’s standout player thus far. Diego Costa is in good goal-scoring form and it’s no surprise that Andres Iniesta has kept things ticking over in midfield – the rest, however, still remain in first gear.
Dani Carvajal has two games under his belt after returning from injury, so the only real question is who will start alongside Sergio Busquets? Koke and Thiago have started a game each, as has Lucas Vazquez forcing Iniesta deeper.
If Hierro is concerned about Russia’s offensive threat then Koke could again get the nod, or if he opts to keep the carousel moving then surely its Marco Asensio’s turn to hop on.
The Madrid man has only played a fleeting role from the bench but was instrumental in Spain’s last real dominant performance as they trounced Argentina 6-1 back in March.
Russia’s pre-tournament injury woes were highlighted by the need to call 38-year-old Sergei Ignashevich out of retirement. And when talisman Alan Dzagoev went down holding his hamstring after just 24 minutes in their opening fixture things looked disastrous for the already dilapidated squad.
However, it was the consequential introduction of Denis Cheryshev and shifting of Aleksandr Golovin to a more central role that invigorated Russia.
Cheryshev has three goals to his name; while a couple of stellar Golovin performances left potential suitors salivating.
Another substitute who has shone is robust and pugnacious striker Artem Dzyuba whose two goals highlighted his physicality.
The one suspention is Igor Smolnikov who would likely have been replaced by Mario Fernandes anyway; while Yuri Zhirkov should return after catching a breather against Uruguay.
Back to the Luzhniki
The side’s will meet where it all kicked off two weeks ago: the Luzhniki Stadium.
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No matter what the outcome it is not difficult to foresee how the greater part of the game will play out. In the group stage Spain had a whopping 73% average of possession, compared to Russia’s 43%, and will spend the majority of this one spinning webs of passes just outside the Russian final third.
Russia would be ill-advised to simply set up an iron curtain. While pragmatism is required they will also try to get danger men Golovin and Cheryshev on the ball as much as possible.
On his day Busquets is as stealthy as a Las Ramblas pickpocket but will need to improve on his showing so far this World Cup to counter the pair’s threat.
Dzubya certainly won’t be able to bully Ramos and Pique the way he did others in the group stage, but the veteran centre backs have looked vulnerable, leaving Hierro aghast on a number of occasions as opposition have penetrated the backline at ease.
The last time Russia got out of their group at a major tournament it ended in a 3-0 defeat to Spain. It wouldn’t be too surprising to see a similar outcome here, but the way this World Cup has played out so far nothing can be taken for granted.
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Putin will return to the stands to daunt, sorry, inspire a Russian side that has already surprised the world once this World Cup at the Luzhniki Stadium. What are your predictions for the game?