The worrying stat that forecasts a downturn in Harry Kane’s goal return

Harry Kane’s expected goal stats once forecasted his meteoric rise, now the same stat warns of a fall for the Tottenham man.

After Tottenham’s win at Manchester United, Mauricio Pochettino talked about perception versus the reality. He warned that despite flying high in the table Tottenham were ‘going to crash’ if they didn’t improve. Drunk on euphoria of the result Tottenham fans didn’t pay too much heed until the sobering trip to Vicarage Road that followed.

A player who is perceived to be in good form is the World Cup’s Golden Boot winner Harry Kane who managed to break his August duck, twice. But the striker’s expected goals (xG) statistics show the reality is he may also be heading for a ‘crash.’

Expected goals

For those unfamiliar with the xG stat, according to Michael Caley (via: FourFourTwo), ‘expected goals uses a whole bunch of indicators based on Opta’s on-ball event data… to determine exactly how likely it is that a particular opportunity will result in a goal.’

It gives a better reflection than rudimentary statistics and is becoming increasingly popular in the mainstream. The most obvious example of its superiority is Germany’s 7-1 demolition of Brazil back in 2014. The Brazilians had more shots, possession, corners etc., but Germany had a much higher xG.

A player who always consistently outperforms his xG is Harry Kane. Caley used xG statistics to predict the spectacular rise of the awkward looking striker before he became a regular in the Spurs side and a bona fide Premier League goal merchant:

"“in the limited minutes he was getting for Spurs, as well as while out on loan, he had been putting up the type of numbers that looked like those of an elite forward.”"

But just as the analytics predicted Kane’s rise, the latest numbers forecast a fall.

Kane’s xG was a career high of .78 per game last season as he hit 30 goals – another personal best. However, according to Football Whispers his average xG this campaign has fallen to .46.

Of course, just four games can give a warped perception, but the low xG dates back to Kane’s ankle injury last March. Kane’s xG had been soaring at .84 per game until the injury but dropped to a .34 average for the remainder of the season.

Football Whispers numbers also show his expected goals assisted has grown this campaign, rising from .1 per game to .18, alluding that his role in the team may have altered. However, his positions for executing such passes remains roughly the same so the argument is inconclusive.

Shot shy Harry

It may be impossible to interpret xG stats just from simply watching a game, but one thing much more conspicuous is Kane’s lack of shooting.

Tottenham aren’t afraid to pull the trigger and registered the third most shots last campaign – the majority of which flew off Kane’s boot. Spurs’ talisman had a cart blanche while in possession and his first thought was always to let one fly – almost akin to Cristiano Ronaldo at Madrid.

According to Premierleague.com, Kane took 184 shots, comfortably top of the pile and almost double that of Christian Eriksen who placed third. However, so far this season Kane sits in 15th position having only registered 10 attempts on goal.

Should we trust the stats?

It is hard for Tottenham fans to envisage anything but Kane improving his goal tally season upon season. The striker’s overall game is also forever evolving but one vice may be that his insatiable hunger for goals doesn’t allow him a rest.

Kane was lauded for his extraterrestrial healing capabilities following that ankle injury last March; but in hindsight a proper recovery and rest would have been preferable.

The small matter of the World Cup followed. Kane took the country’s armband and led them to fourth place in what must have been a physically and emotionally draining few weeks. But after a quick break and welcoming another baby to the clan, Kane was back at Hotspur Way and has been involved from the off without a preseason.

Of course, Kane is a merciless finisher and should always outperform his xG –  last season exceeding it by 5.17 goals. But if his xG figures remain so low then it seems inevitable his end of year tally would fall below those of previous years.

The games continue to come thick and fast for Harry. He represents England on Saturday and mouthwatering ties against Liverpool and Inter Milan await with Tottenham. Kane will certainly never volunteer to sit one out but a good rest may be necessary to get him back to full sharpness.