Can the US defeat England without Rapinoe in the starting XI?
Today, the reigning champion USWNT takes on England’s Lionesses in the first Word Cup semi-final in Lyon, France. Most pundits and bookies put the odds in the United State’s favor. Probability site fivethirtyeight.com has US odds of winning at 67% to England’s 33%.
The USWNT has won three World Cups and four Olympic gold medals, while England’s women have yet to win their first major final. History, analysis and predictions cannot account for the intangible desire. Both teams in this semifinal have motivations beyond pure competition. These additional motivations could affect and elevate play on the field. They already have. In this match, it could really matter who wants it more.
The English case
The English team dominated Norway in their 3-0 quarterfinal win. Lionesses Ellen White, Nikita Parris, Jill Scott and Lucy Bronze were all clearly feeling it. All but Parris scored, although she had the assist for the second goal. The English squad is pumped. In fact, they’re done with losing. In 2012, when England hosted the Olympics, Canada knocked them out in the quarterfinal. A few years later, Japan ended England’s 2015 World Cup run with a semifinal defeat.
The semifinal defeat by Japan, in particular, still stings for the squad. English and Olympique Lyon right back Lucy Bronze believes this gives Lionesses the edge on desire. Bronze argued that England’s disappointment at their World Cup and Olympic near misses make them want the win more. Sky News reported Bronze saying, “We’re short of that last step. I think we have more hunger than all the other teams because we’ve never reached a final and you look now — the four teams left, we’re the only one that hasn’t reached a final.
The English squad is playing with a chip on its shoulder. Their success in the 2019 World Cup thus far has generated an outpouring of support back home. This combination of anger and excitement could propel them over the top to victory.
The US motivation
The US is the favorite. They are the winningest team is women’s soccer history, yet they are playing this World Cup with a preoccupation that could spur them to be even greater. In March the US players filed a gender-discrimination lawsuit against US Soccer. On June 21 — right in the middle of the World Cup — both sides agreed to mediate the suit.
Sure, the USWNT is much more popular than the USMNT and they win way more than the guys. There are lots of convoluted references to the different contracts and pay structures between the men’s and women’s teams, but if you want to understand the heart of the matter, consider this: In May, Time reported that USWNT Coach Jill Ellis — who led her team to their 2015 World Cup victory — was paid $318,533 in total comp for fiscal year 2017-18. During that same period, the now deposed USMNT Coach Bruce Arena, whose team failed to qualify for the 2018 men’s World Cup, was paid $1.27 million. Even all the Under-20 men’s coaches made more than Ellis despite her Wold Cup win and bulletproof record.
Whatever the pay structures, those numbers are simply unjustifiable. So, add another US Would Cup victory to their achievements, and their value, and it puts the squad in a sterling position in their efforts to come to a more equitable arrangement with US Soccer.
Which affront emboldens a team more: getting close but never quite making it, or being treated unjustly? By the end of the England-USA semifinal, we will know.