5. Duvan Zapata
Duvan Zapata shocked Serie A last season when he managed to score more goals over the course of last season than he had over the 2 previous years combined. His 23 goals were easily a career high and were good enough for a 2nd place finish in last season’s Capocannoniere race.
There is every reason to believe that he will be able to follow that performance with another successful season. Atalanta will see nearly their entire squad from last season returning for another year and Zapata will remain the focal point of their high-powered attack. There is just one thing that should hold him back from winning the Capocannoniere this season.
Even as part of an Atalanta attack that could once again lead Serie A in scoring, the fact that Zapata will also be tasked with competing in the Champions League this season. Last year he made 32 starts in Serie A and 5 more appearances as a substitute.
With the added burden of a Champions League season on his plate, it seems unlikely that he will be able to appear as regularly in Serie A this season. With the possibility that Atalanta could make it out of their CL group while also likely making a deep run in the Coppa Italia, it seems likely that he would be limited to around 28 starts in Serie A this year with 32 total appearances.
It might not seem like that will be a huge difference-maker for him, but small differences like this tend to be the difference between winning the Capocannoniere and falling short. I think the decreased appearances will be just enough to keep Zapata from leading Serie A in scoring this season.