Like it or not, Kepa has to leave Chelsea this summer.
With the signings of Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner already confirmed, and Kai Havertz seemingly imminent, Chelsea’s attack looks very well suited for a title charge under manager Frank Lampard.
However, there are areas of the team that do not, none more so than the goalkeeper.
Kepa Arrizabalaga has shown time and time again that he cannot be a starting goalkeeper in the Premier League. The fact that a 38-year-old second-string keeper in Willy Caballero has played better than him this season says a lot.
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If Kepa is judged as an average Premier League keeper, he is underwhelming. If he is judged as the most expensive keeper in history, which he is, he is the worst signing Chelsea have ever made.
Why did Chelsea spend so much on Kepa?
The circumstances behind Kepa’s signing are very strange, and for a Chelsea fan, unfortunate. The most important takeaway is that he was a textbook panic buy.
Former goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois had two years remaining on his Chelsea contract when he decided to go AWOL and demand a transfer to Real Madrid with less than two weeks to go before the start of the season.
Shocked by this demand, the Blues hierarchy had no choice but to let him go and sign a replacement. The only problem was that no club in their right mind would sell their keeper so close to the start of the season, so Chelsea had to sign a player with a release clause.
The best option they looked at was Jan Oblak of Atletico Madrid, who had a release clause of €100m, and they were so desperate that they paid it. However, a release clause means the club has no say; the player still has to agree.
Oblak took one look at Chelsea and shook his head, understandably, since the club was not even in the Champions League, so the search kept going. Then they found Kepa.
His release clause was €80m, but he was far less experienced and talented than Oblak. Regardless, they had very little choice, as no other top keeper was available, so they went ahead and signed him.
Just to put this into context, Madrid had considered signing him the previous January, when his release clause was €20m, but manager Zinedine Zidane vetoed the move because he felt that was way too much to spend on a player like him.
Let that sink in. Champions League winner Zidane said 20m was too much. Then six months later, the Blues sign him for 80m. Eighty. Million. Euros.
Kepa’s signing was a combination of betrayal, rejection and panic, and he was a necessary resolution to a situation that had already cost the club millions, but he was nowhere near the first choice target.
Just how bad has Kepa been this season?
The simple answer is worse. And the worst part is that usually his incompetence isn’t even noticed.
Kepa is not like David De Gea at Manchester United, who makes other-worldly saves and then fails to stop shots right at him. He hardly has those extreme low points or those extreme high points. He’s just consistently bad.
For example, the calamity De Gea made in the FA Cup semis won’t be seen from Kepa. Instead, he has set the standard so low for what is a savable shot that fans are no longer surprised when he is unable to save them.
This is not even a matter of opinion, the stats speak for themselves. Kepa has the lowest save percentage of the entire league, at 55%, and this includes teams like Norwich City, who have conceded 70 goals.
Having a poor defence in front of him doesn’t help either, but his save record is just appalling, there’s no excuse for it. As if that wasn’t enough, there’s more.
The expected goals (xG) and goals against (xGA) values are carefully calculated to display the probability of shots going in, taking into account position, angle, defenders, etc. Chelsea have conceded 54 goals this season, but their xGA is 38.
This means that of all the shots that were taken against Kepa this season, 38 of them should’ve gone in, but instead 54 did. He is at fault for 16 of the 54 goals conceded this season.
In contrast, champions Liverpool have an xGA of 41, but they have only conceded 32, which shows how immense Alisson Becker has been for them.
No club in the top half of the table has a greater difference between expected and actual goals allowed than five (Wolves), while many actually have fewer goals conceded than expected. Chelsea have 16 more.
Watching Kepa in-game, the argument has been made that appearances can be deceiving and he is just a scapegoat for the defence, but there is nothing deceiving about that. In every statistic that isolates his performance alone, he is one of the worst in the league.
While being one of the worst in the league, he is starting for one of the best, so yes, when asked how bad Kepa has been the season, the answer is worse.
Why Chelsea cannot afford to keep Kepa next season
Kepa is one of the reasons Chelsea have had such a fight on their hands for Champions League football, along with the leaky defence and at times not being clinical in front of goal.
Every top team, especially title-winners, is always backed up by excellent, reliable keepers, and Kepa is anything but reliable. With him starting in goal, Chelsea will never win the league.
Lampard knows this, which is why he is desperate to replace him in the summer, and rightly so.
Ironically, one of the most-linked targets is Oblak once again, now with a release clause of €120m, but this time around the situations around both clubs have changed, and he could very well accept a move.
Realistically, he seems too expensive to sign, especially having signed Kepa just two seasons ago. But with Oblak in the team, a title challenge becomes not only possible but probable, and club owner Roman Abramovich is nothing if not unpredictable.
Beyond him, there are other targets such as Andre Onana from Ajax, Dean Henderson from United, and Nick Pope of Burnley. They are all massive upgrades on Kepa, though that’s not saying much.
Regardless of who the replacement is, Kepa has to go, it’s as simple as that.
Having already taken care of the attacking signings, Lampard now has to focus on the other side of the field. A left-back and centre-back are needed, as well as a new keeper, and only then can the Blues begin to dream about snatching the title from Liverpool.
It’s up to the higher-ups at Chelsea to get these signings over the line; the club’s future depends on it.