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Cruz Azul seems certain to cement its spot in Liga MX Final

We always expected the León-Guadalajara match-up to be the more attractive Liga MX semifinal, but Cruz Azul’s 4-0 demolition of the Pumas on Thursday night makes the case for us.

The Cementeros carved up a UNAM team that had lost only once all season and appear to have a berth in the Guardianes 2020 Final all sewn up. Sunday’s return leg is likely to feature a big blue bus parked in front of goalie Jesús Corona’s net.

That suggests the Saturday contest featuring No. 1 seed León playing host to No. 7 Guadalajara will offer more drama.

In Wednesday’s first leg, the Chivas were outplayed for most of the 90 minutes but trudged off the Estadio Akron pitch with a 1-1 draw. The Esmeraldas took twice as many shots (20 to 10), but only managed to get three on net.

León circled its prey throughout but could not turn its dominance (62% possession) into victory as an early Fernando Navarro goal was offset by a J.J. Macías penalty conversion (after a knucklehead foul by León keeper Rodolfo Cota in minute 50).

So, the situation is this:

León advances with a win, a scoreless draw, or a 1-1 tie.
The Chivas advance to the Final with a win, or any draw involving at least 4 goals (2-2, 3-3, etc.).

I’d expect coach Ignacio Ambriz to repeat his selection of Joel Campbell upfront as the Costa Rica international gave Guadalajara defenders fits all game, providing the assist on the Esmeraldas’ goal.

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León midfield wizard Luis Montes should find more room to operate, but winger Angel Mena must find inspiration so that the home team can keep the irrepressible Chivas at bay. An early Guadalajara goal will ratchet up the pressure on the heavily favored Esmeraldas.

Coach Víctor Manuel Vucetich will have winger Isaac Brizuela available as “El Conejo” is back from a brief Covid scare. Strikers Alexis Vega and Macías will be expected to contribute more (both came on as halftime subs in the first leg after missing extended time due to injury) and skipper Jesús Molina must stand tall in midfield to stifle direct access to the box.

After only being forced to make two saves (Navarro’s goal was unstoppable), Chivas keeper Raúl Gudiño might have to play superhero to earn “El Rebaño Sagrado” a spot in the Final.

Mexico City derby

Cruz Azul sat atop the Liga MX table after Matchday 11, but then went 1-1-4 down the stretch, prompting nay-sayers to predict the Cementeros’ league title drought would surpass 23 years. Instead, Robert Siboldi’s boys have rediscovered their Clausura 2020 form when “La Máquina Azul” closed out that aborted season on a 6-game winning streak.

Many supporters lamented the cancellation, certain their beloved Cementeros would win their first Liga MX title since December 1997. So the collapse in form heading into these playoffs was unnerving. Then Cruz Azul marched into “El Volcán” and pumped in 3 goals against the Tigres, following that up with a master class in catenaccio at Estadio Azteca to advance to the Final Four.

Back at the Azteca, the Cementeros overran a one-loss UNAM team, scoring 3 goals in the first 13 minutes. Luis Romo got his second of the Liga MX playoffs in minute 90+5 to extend Cruz Azul’s advantage to 4-0.

The Pumas must now score 4 goals at its home ground on Sunday while hoping that the rampant Cementeros don’t ripple more netting or else their season comes to an end. UNAM last scored four times in a 4-1 triumph over Puebla on Matchday 8 (Sept. 5).

Cruz Azul will sit back and absorb pressure from the start which means the Pumas must be more tactically sound than they were Thursday. UNAM rarely found space down the flanks (fullback Alan Mozo was a turnover machine) and crosses targeting the dynamic duo of Juan Ignacio Dinenno and Carlos González were sorely lacking. That pairing has 15 of the club’s 30 goals on the season.

Siboldi & Company know the drill. Stay disciplined at the back and be selective on the counter. But when the Cementeros counter, they are often lethal. Since the Pumas must press forward, we might see plenty of breakouts for the visitors.

Next. Final Liga MX Power Rankings. dark

Oh, and by the way, the last time Cruz Azul lost by 4 goals was 114 games ago (Pachuca routed the Cementeros 4-0 on Sept. 27, 2017). And you have to go back to 1989 to find the one and only time UNAM defeated Cruz Azul by 4 goals.

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