Liga MX: Much at stake as Pachuca visits San Luis

The final weekend of the 18-team Liga MX regular season kicks off Thursday night in San Luis where the host Tuneros will take on the Tuzos of Pachuca. You might think a season-finale featuring the 13th-placed team against the 16th-placed team would have little drama, but you’d be wrong.

Pachuca is still in the hunt for a wildcard spot and Atlético de San Luis has one last chance to reduce its hefty “relegation” penalty.

Heading into the final round of games, five teams have clinched a playoff berth while 10 teams are wrestling over the seven remaining postseason invitations. In addition, two of the four first-round byes are unclaimed.

Liga MX playoff permutations for Pachuca

The Tuzos kept their playoff hopes alive with a gritty 1-0 win over 5th-placed Santos Laguna despite playing the final 50+ minutes with 10 men. An Ismael Sosa penalty conversion in minute 58 held up for the much-needed win, staving off elimination.

Pachuca must now win and hope for help, but the “help” needed is not out of the realm of possibility since so many teams are clustered from 7th to 15th. And there are even a couple scenarios whereby the Tuzos could reach the postseason with a tie against the Tuneros.

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A Tuzos victory gives Paulo Pezzolano’s team 23 points, lifting them into 8th place. Since 9th-placed Guadalajara hosts 10th-placed Tigres and both sit on 22 points, Pachuca would be sitting above the loser of that match.

Two teams currently above the Tuzos have far more difficult closing matches: 12th-placed Mazatlán FC visits 4th-placed Monterrey with the Rayados needing a win to secure a first-round bye; 11th-placed Querétaro visits 6th-placed León who are also in the hunt for a first-round bye.

Pachuca’s chances should they manage only a tie at Estadio Alfonso Lastras are not so far-fetched. A draw leaves the Tuzos with 21 points, even with Mazatlán FC and Querétaro, but ahead of both teams on goal differential. And as cited in the preceding paragraph, both clubs are projected to lose.

As such, the Tuzos could find themselves in 9th place when the playoffs begin next week. This would be an amazing result considering that the country’s oldest team (founded in 1901) did not get their first win of the season until Matchday 10, starting the season 0-4-5.

Then again, perhaps Wednesday’s unfortunate episode with the team bus is an omen …

How much will Tuneros have to shell out?

Atlético de San Luis is out of the playoffs, but they’ll be playing to save 50 million pesos.

That’s right. The organization is destined to finish among the bottom two of the Liga MX “Relegation Standings” (a calculation based on club performance over the past three years).

As Liga MX suspended relegation for the next four years, the bottom three teams in these standings are required to pay a significant fine to remain in the top flight. The payouts range from 50 million pesos (16th place, FC Juárez), to 70 million pesos (17th place) and finally 120 million pesos (last place).

As it stands entering the final slate of games, Atlético de San Luis must defeat Pachuca and hope that Atlas loses at Necaxa on Friday night to avoid being penalized to the tune of 120 million pesos.

What’s the likelihood of that happening? The Tuneros are only 1-0-8 at home on the season and Necaxa is at the very bottom of the Liga MX table.

And all this as Atlético de Madrid has announced its intention to end its part-ownership deal with the Tuneros. But there are hints of new sponsors coming to San Luis. While current ownership must figure out where to get the funds to pay its relegation penalty, there are reports of a talks with a US-based investment group.