The road to Qatar: Who might Scotland face in playoffs?

The dust has since settled on last week’s colossal Scotland victory over Denmark, and attention now turns to Zurich; the Swiss city hosts the play-off draw on Friday evening.

Clarke’s side find themselves in an unfamiliar position, rubbing shoulders with some of Europe’s elite as a ‘seeded’ entrant. Importantly, this wasn’t earned from some bizarre UEFA algorithm or through a Nations League side door – Scotland have conspired to win six consecutive competitive group games in a row – and are therefore well deserved of their presence in Pot 1.

Seeded status grants enviable advantages: a home leg semifinal and avoidance of the “big boys” of Portugal and Italy. It may just defer the task, but at least the Tartan Army tune into the draw knowing that a visit from Ronaldo or Bernardeschi is not next on the agenda.

So, who could Scotland face? This article reviews their potential opponents – those in the “unseeded” half of the draw. After several rousing displays at the national stadium in recent weeks, surely not many would fancy a trip to Glasgow come the spring? Mind you, they probably won’t want to head to Lisbon or Rome either …

Polish dependence

There’s no point dancing round any the narrative here: Lewandowski is the threat; his name alone sends shudders down the spine of many a European defender. The Bayern Munich talisman has notched 13 goals in his last nine appearances for club and country, and many feel the COVID pandemic robbed him of last term’s Balon d’Or. No mean feat in an era graced by Messrs Ronaldo and Messi.

Poland finished second in a rather weak qualifying group; and although technically pushing Euro Championship finalists England to the last game – a heavy English defeat to San Marino and a convincing Polish victory over Hungary in Warsaw was required – unsurprisingly, neither materialised.

North Macedonia’s loss of a legend

The relatively unknown quantity was thrusted into European football consciousness this summer, with the tiny Balkan nation proudly taking their place at the 2020 European Championships. When many speak of Macedonian football, Goran Pandev is never too far from the conversation. However, the veteran forward’s glittering international career ended at the Euros, and the loss of an icon seems to have created conditions for inconsistency. Despite finishing second in a tricky qualifying group (sizable threats of Iceland & Romania were dually put to the sword), North Macedonia stumbled to a goalless draw at home to Armenia, before turning them over 5-0 in Yerevan. They were also battered at 4-0 at home to Germany in October. It may well be a case of which team turns up on the day …

A return to Turkish delight?

One can draw reasonable comparisons between Scotland and Turkey. Both have struggled in recent times to deliver a level of performance befitting of their footballing heritage and reputation. Both have endured protracted absences away from international football’s premier competition. Turkey’s last World Cup appearance came in 2002 (a competition where they defied all expectations to finish an impressive 3rd), Scotland last turned out at France 98.

However, both have substantial reason for optimism. The Turks’ playing roster has strengthened exponentially in recent times; playmaker Hakan Calhanoglu, who swapped his San Siro allegiance in the summer by moving from the Rossoneri to Scudetto champions Internazionale, offers a particularly potent attacking threat. Meanwhile, players of premier league quality, such as Tierney, Robertson and John McGinn, have done much to elevate Scotland’s fortunes on the international stage. This would be an intriguing clash.

Tricky customers

Despite Ukraine registering a respectable Euros performance in the summer, striking legend Andriy Shevchenko decided to end his five-year tenure as head coach of his national side. The Ukrainians haven’t exactly been in scintillating form since; draws with Kazakhstan, Bulgaria and Bosnia & Herzegovina symbolize a rather mediocre qualifying campaign. However, they could still be a tough nut to crack. Ukraine were the draw specialists in Group D – 6 of their 8 games ended in stalemate, with a further two victories consolidating their points tally.

A good night in Vienna

Austria is the first of two teams in the unseeded pot who qualified via their Nations League endeavours. Ironically, Austria were part of Scotland’s qualifying group, pipping Israel to a third place finish but hardly inspiring confidence – they finished seven points shy of a playoff position. A cagey 2-2 draw at Hampden coupled with a 1-0 victory in Vienna would leave Scotland going into a tie full of confidence; but a team boasting seasoned internationalists like Arnautovic and Alaba should still be respected. Perhaps the most favorable draw for the Scots.

A Czechered run of form

The Czechs qualify for the play-offs by the same virtue as Austria: their Nations League performance propping up a rather underwhelming qualifying campaign which saw them finish below the Welsh. In a Nations League group including Scotland, Slovakia and Israel, the Czechs ran away group leaders, in spite of both home and away defeats to Steve Clarke’s men (although the fixture in Olomouc saw the Czechs severely blighted by a COVID outbreak).

Although some distance from the teams of their recent past, they should not be under-estimated. Names such as Cech, Rosicky and Nedved may have faded into the history books but the current playing squad still harnesses plenty of talent.  West Ham duo Tomas Soucek and Vladimir Coufal offer attacking threat and defensive assurance respectively, goalkeeper Tomas Vaclik has impressed for Sevilla in recent years, and now finds himself as Olympiakos’ No.1.

Speaking of goalkeepers … if it was to be Czech Republic in March, it’s safe to say Clarke will stick with Craig Gordon between the posts. David Marshall was infamously lobbed by Patrik Schick as he secured a brace in Scotland in their opening game of Euro 2020; the Tartan Army would certainly not want a repeat Hampden performance in the Spring.

Scotland awaits

So, who will Scotland be willing out the hat on Friday evening? Scottish confidence has generally been in short supply over recent years, but this side has already brokered a way into a major tournament, and you’d be daft to bet against them doing the same this time. Clarke inevitably stayed coy this week, regardless of questions on preferred opposition. As for the ranks of the Tartan Army, most you assume will want to avoid Poland, some may prefer staying away from Turkey, but all should feel that a job can be done on any brief that comes their way.

There is one guarantee however: Hampden will be bouncing come playoff semifinal day. Scotland can just about to see the Promised Land in the distance. By April, they may just be booking flights to Qatar.