Final Champions League group matches feature plenty of storylines
The last matchday of this season’s UEFA Champions League group stage is upon us. While several teams have booked their place in the next round, there is still much to be decided. Here is an overview of what to look out for.
(A quick note to those unfamiliar, the top two teams in each UCL group progress to the Round of 16, third place teams drop to Europa League. The last place teams are eliminated).
Most fascinating group: Group G
One would have to go back to the 2009/10 season to see the last time a Champions League group went down to the wire to this extent. All four of Lille (8 points), Salzburg (7), Sevilla (6) and Wolfsburg (5) can still dream of a berth in the last 16. In fact, the only impossible scenarios here are Lille finishing last and Wolfsburg ending in third. For each of the four clubs, it is very simple; win and you are in.
Salzburg host Sevilla while Wolfsburg welcome Lille in the final matches of the group. There are two possible scenarios to see teams end level on points. A Wolfsburg win along with a draw in the other match will see everyone, bar Sevilla, finish on 8 points.
In that case, the Austrian and German sides would progress while the Ligue 1 champs would enter the Europa League. The other situation would be if Wolfsburg draw and Sevilla lose, which would still see the Bundesliga outfit finish bottom on head-to-head.
All teams can still win the group as well, which is quite remarkable and very rare to see. Lille will win the group if they win or if both games are drawn. Wolfsburg will go from last to first should the first scenario above occurs. Sevilla would be the group winners if they and Wolfsburg win, while the group will be Salzburg’s if they win and Lille do not.
Group B showdown: Porto-Atletico de Madrid
Moving on, the Group B tie between Porto and Atletico Madrid is a huge match for both. Porto (5 points) have progression in their hands, with a win allowing the Portuguese to join already-confirmed group winners Liverpool in the next round.
They will also go through if they draw and Milan (4) cannot defeat Liverpool. Diego Simeone’s side (4) will progress if they win and Milan don’t, or if both win and the Colchoneros end up with a superior goal difference. However, a draw will not be enough for either if Milan are successful at home to Liverpool.
Group F’s curtain closer will see Villarreal (7) host Atalanta (6). The Bergamaschi need a win to follow Manchester United into the next round, but must be careful. A loss could see them eliminated from Europe altogether should Young Boys (4) do the double over the Red Devils. That would leave the Swiss champs in third while Gianpiero Gasperini’s side would end up bottom. Villarreal just need a point to wrap up second place in the group.
Desperate Barça must win in Munich
Finally, Barcelona will have their backs against the wall in their heavyweight clash with Group E winners Bayern Munich.
A win is required for Xavi’s side to join the Germans in the last 16 draw. The Catalans will also go through, at the expense of Benfica, if the Eagles do not win their match at home to Dynamo Kyiv. The last time Barcelona did not make the last 16 of the Champions League was in 2001/02, back when there was a second group stage instead of a straight knockout for the following round.
Across the other groups, Club Brugge and Leipzig will battle for third in Group A, with the Belgian champs needing to obtain more points on their trip to PSG than the Bundesliga side at home to Manchester City to snatch the Europa League spot.
Inter and Real Madrid (Group D) will compete for top spot in the Spanish capital, with Carlo Ancelotti’s side just needing a point to finish on top. Finally, Juventus need to better Chelsea’s result in Group H to triumph in their section.
The rules on tiebreakers can be found here. I suspect that may be needed in at least one group. All the matches along with their respective dates and times can be found here. Next week Monday at noon CET will be the draw for the last 16. Between Tuesday and Wednesday night’s fixtures, we can expect to have tons of drama among the teams needing certain results.