Slumping El Tri faces do-or-die match vs. Panama

Mexico continues to be its own worst enemy and now coach Gerardo Martino faces a must-win game against Panama in Round 11 of the Concacaf World Cup qualifying tournament.

After another in a long string of uninspiring performances, El Tri finds itself one point ahead of Panama for the third and final automatic World Cup berths awarded to Concacaf teams. A loss Wednesday night would send Mexico tumbling into fourth place which would still provide El Tri with a path to Qatar via an inter-confederation playoff, but that would be an embarrassment for a team that was ranked in FIFA’s Top 10 as recently as last summer.

Coach Martino has been told that he must beat Panama or he’s gone, and fans at the Estado Azteca on Sunday called for his head. In fact, national federation officials have already begun talks with the Tigres and their coach Miguel Herrera should it be necessary to bring in a new manager for the final three qualifying rounds in March.

After the lackluster scoreless draw at home against Costa Rica on Sunday, “Tata” accepted the blame, saying he erred in his line-up selections and failed to make the necessary adjustments in the second half.

Line-up selection is critical for Mexico

Martino has been under fire since early last year, dating back to a June 7 loss to Team USA in the Nations League final. Two months later, El Tri was beaten again by the U.S. in the Gold Cup Final even as the Americans were using a second-choice squad.

The situation worsened in November, when Mexico fell to the United States and Canada in back-to-back qualifiers, and the outlook has not improved since then. El Tri looked flat in Jamaica last week and needed two late goals to avoid a loss, then followed that up with the ho-hum performance against Costa Rica.

El Tri has lacked spark throughout its qualifying campaign, not producing a single memorable moment yet “Tata” has stubbornly stuck with the very veterans who are not performing well.

Instead of working the young talent into the line-up last summer, Martino continued to rely on the Class of 2018 some of whom are simply past their prime or in poor form.

Midfielder Héctor Herrera is the current target of fan abuse. He took to social media last month to criticize fans of El Tri, essentially putting a target on his back and he has come up short thus far.

Herrera was a team leader with the El Tri side that went to Russia 2018, but since transferring to  Atlético de Madrid in 2019 his game has atrophied considerably while sitting on the bench for “Los Colchoneros.”

Though his playing time is way down in La Liga, Martino inserts him into the El Tri line-up almost automatically and he is not being rewarded. Herrera’s miscues are becoming a constant (bad passes, turnovers) and his seeming lack of effort attracts criticism as well.

But Herrera is not the only problem. Both fullback positions have been an issue for Mexico and Martino has failed to look for alternatives when there were several promising prospects available. Jesús Gallardo and Luis Rodríguez continue to get call-ups to El Tri despite sub-par performances.

In addition to poor personnel decisions, Martino has failed to consider tactical variations. El Tri inevitably opens with a 4-3-3 line-up that is devoid of playmakers in midfield. Striker Rogelio Funes Mori has not excelled in place of the oft-injured Raúl Jiménez, but he rarely sees any service from his teammates.

With the in-form Edson Álvarez in front of the back four, Mexico might be better off with a 4-1-3-2 or even a 4-2-4 that features an extra attacker. The competition in Concacaf is not so intimidating that Mexico would be vulnerable at the back though, again, this would require Martino to desist from his reliance on aging veterans.

Carlos Rodríguez (or Luis Romo) and Orbelín Pineda could provide greater link-up play going forward. They’d certainly be more dangerous than the Álvarez-Herrera-Andrés Guardado midfield that has been a stable of the Martino era.

Defender Héctor Moreno, 34, and Néstor Araujo, 30, are sturdy defenders, but Olympic bronze medalists César Montes, 24, and Johan Vásquez, 23, deserved more opportunities to demonstrate their value, especially with the benefit of a world class goalie – Guillermo Ochoa – behind them.

There has been too little risk-taking and very little dynamic play in the offensive third. This was evident against Costa Rica as Mexico dominated possession (a mostly sterile 72%) but managed only 1 shot on goal and that was off a free kick.

Against Panama – a team capable of pulling off a stunning upset – Mexico must be aggressive from the start while also exhibiting patience and precision. Although a coaching change might be the wake-up call El Tri needs, the team has too much talent to take the long way to Qatar.