The UEFA Europa League makes its return with the knockout round phase
The UEFA Europa League knockout round will start on Thursday, albeit under a new format. There are 24 teams left in the tournament, with 45 games left to see who will lift the trophy at the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan in Seville. I will touch on the eight matches played in this new round and will give my overall thoughts on who are most likely to go all the way to the title.
Knockout round playoff matches
For those who did not read my matchday 6 preview, this round will see a runner-up from the Europa League group stage take on the teams who finished third in the Champions League. The former will host the second leg. The group winners from the Europa League all have a bye to the round of 16 where they will all be paired against a winner from this round.
The most intriguing match of the lot is between Barcelona and Napoli. In what is the Catalans’ maiden tie in the current iteration of the Europa League, they will not have it easy against the Partenopei. Napoli have had a considerably better season in comparison, although Barça are starting to improve under Xavi. This tie will surely have the most eyes.
The tournament’s record winners Sevilla will battle Dinamo Zagreb. The Andalusians are heavy favorites in this matchup. Having won the Europa League in 2019/20, Julen Lopetegui’s side will hope to hoist the trophy at their own stadium come late May.
Some other top matches include Borussia Dortmund taking on Rangers and Porto battling Lazio. Both ties will likely be close. All four clubs will want to make a deep run so both ties will garner quite the attention.
Across the other four ties, Real Betis will meet Zenit St. Petersburg, Atalanta face Olympiacos, Real Sociedad take on RB Leipzig and Sporting Braga battle Sheriff Tiraspol. Of the four, I would say the tastiest of the bunch is between La Real and Leipzig. Although neither have been amazing throughout the campaign, this still promises to be a high-profile pairing.
What I expect to happen in this round
Across the knockout round playoff ties, I see the following teams progressing: Barcelona, Sevilla, Borussia Dortmund, Porto, Real Betis, Olympiacos, Real Sociedad and Sporting Braga. Of the teams I did not mention, the ones I could potentially see moving on are Napoli, Lazio, Rangers, Atalanta and Leipzig.
I see the remaining ties as rather one-sided. Sheriff have run their course. After exploding out of the block in the Champions League group stage, they only collected one point in their final four games. Add that they are still on winter break, they will struggle with match fitness against a fitter Braga team.
In a similar way, Zenit has also not played since December, which can only serve as a disadvantage. As for Dinamo Zagreb, they have too much of a task on their hands taking on Sevilla. Only Slavia Praha have been able to top the Andalusians in a Europa League knockout round tie since 2013/14. Since the Croatian top dogs have not been as reliable as other years, along with Sevilla’s best form in years, this will likely end up one-sided.
Europa League group winners
Looking at the teams who will not play this round, it is hard to find a real standout based on overall performance alone. Although Olympique Lyon obtained the most points in the group phase (16), they have been in horrible league form. Domestic performances and continental performances are different, but it still is hard to tell how far they can go.
Three sides went unbeaten in the group stage, which were AS Monaco, Eintracht Frankfurt, and Galatasaray. The Ligue 1 side could pose a threat if they remain reliable throughout. Since Galatasaray are only a few points above the relegation zone in Turkey, how much focus they have for this competition remains to be seen. As for Frankfurt, they also have lacked consistency. The 2018-19 semifinalists will have to show their true quality to have any hope of going all the way.
Bayer Leverkusen and West Ham both finished on 13 points. They are also flying high in their respective leagues, currently in Champions League spots in the Bundesliga and Premier League respectively. The Werkself seem the most stable of all the group winners. I can foresee them going far if they keep up the positive work they have been doing. As for the Irons, they do have a fair number of injuries, particularly at the back. A healthy West Ham side, however, can do some damage.
As for other two group winners, Crvena zvezda and Spartak Moscow will likely be outsiders. The former was not quite impressive over the six matches, just sneaking top spot at Braga and Midtjylland’s expense. With the title race in Serbia still quite close, it is possible they might place more attention on that.
Spartak, on the other hand, are still several points back of the European spots in Russia. They may be able pay more attention to the Europa League, but I do not see them as a contender for the title despite their impressive showings in their group.
Who have the best shot at winning the Europa League?
Who do I think stand a legitimate shot at lifting the trophy on May 18?
Historically, since the introduction of the Europa League, the only winner to not hail from either England or Spain is Porto. There are five teams left from one of those two associations.
That being said, I have to include Sevilla as a serious contender. They have been flying in LaLiga and as I have mentioned, this is their competition. I also consider Barcelona to be a heavy favorite. Knowing that a top four spot is not guaranteed in LaLiga, the Catalans might take this competition more seriously.
Outside of them, I see Leverkusen and Porto as dark horses. Both have very solid records in the Europa League; thus, are the other teams worth watching. The only other side with a real shot for me is Borussia Dortmund. Should they reach the quarterfinals and the Bundesliga is firmly in Bayern’s favor, the Schwarzgelben will likely feel inclined to put their focus on this.
The first legs take place this Thursday with the return matches the following week. The draw for the round of 16 will be on Feb. 25. Until then, the first eight ties will kick off the final stretch in the Road to Seville.