Having lost 2-1 at Santiago Bernabéu, Diego Simeone's team must turn the score around this Wednesday at Metropolitano if they are to stay alive in the Champions League. Nothing new for Atlético de Madrid, who have already demonstrated they are capable of turning around knockout-stage matches. The problem? The opponent. And no one knows the Champions better than Real Madrid.
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On one side, Atleti, a team that has earned a reputation for being hard to beat at home, feeding off its recent history of resilience and invincibility. On the other, Real Madrid, a team that collects comebacks, defies the impossible, and has an almost supernatural dominance in the Champions League. The stage is set for another heart-stopping clash of Madrid's giants.
Atlético de Madrid and the effort of turning the tie around
The loss in the first leg puts Atlético de Madrid in a complicated position. To qualify directly, they need to win by at least a two-goal difference. If they win by one, the match goes into extra time, where anything can happen. But there is a detail that gives rise to hope: Simeone's team has overturned disadvantages like these before.
Colchoneros have lost the first leg in six Champions League knockout ties and reversed the score in three of them. Another reason to be optimistic? Their solidity at Metropolitano. Atleti have lost just one of their last seven home games against Real Madrid in all competitions. In cup ties, the numbers are even better: five consecutive unbeaten home games against their rivals, with four wins and one draw.
Still, for tradition to be in their favor, Simeone must solve things. And right now, the team has a big problem: key absences. Koke is injured, and Lenglet and De Paul are still uncertain. The Argentine coach will have to rearrange his team, having to win at all costs, but also being careful with the opponent's deadly attack.
Real Madrid has the upper hand and history in its favor
If there's one team that knows how to finish off knockout ties in the Champions League, it's Real Madrid. The numbers are simply staggering: Los Blancos have gone through from 21 of their past 22 knockout rounds after winning the first leg. The sole exception? That disastrous elimination at the hands of Ajax in 2018/19.
Moreover, with Carlo Ancelotti, Real has a perfect record: nine knockout ties won after establishing the advantage in the first leg. The Italian coach knows precisely how to hold an advantage, choosing the right moments to counter while draining the confidence of the opposition.
But all is not rosy at Real Madrid. Absences are big: Carvajal, Ceballos, Militão, and Vallejo are out. Good news: Jude Bellingham, suspended for the first leg, is back. The English midfielder has been vital for the team and might just prove to be the difference maker for Los Blancos to wrap this tie up without issue, with him, Rodrygo, Mbappé, and Vinícius Júnior making up a quartet to reckon with.
If recent away form against Atlético is anything to go by, however, the match has all the hallmarks of a tough one. After a scintillating streak of eight consecutive wins at Atlético's stadium between 2008 and 2014, Real Madrid has won just three of their last 17 away games against Los Colchoneros.
A clásico that's hard to call, but with one clear favorite
The encounter between Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid has already provided us with everything in the Champions League. The second leg of the round of 16 has all the ingredients to be another thrilling chapter in their rivalry.
Atlético is fighting for survival, while Real Madrid is looking to remain alive in its quest for another Champions League crown. Los Colchoneros will have to defy the stats and the mental block that has thus far prevented them from defeating Real Madrid on the biggest Champions League nights if they are to make history. Los Blancos, for their part, know that once they get ahead, the tie has a way of ending in their favor.
When the final whistle is blown by the referee, one of Madrid's giants will be eliminated. The other will still be pursuing glory.