Atlético de Madrid and Real Madrid meet again in an unlikely setting, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for the Spanish Super Cup semifinal, and this derby already feels different before the ball even rolls. Atlético arrive as the symbolic home side, more settled, with fewer physical issues and carrying a recent memory that still bothers their rival. Real Madrid land with results on their side, but shorthanded, under pressure, and fully aware that games like this tend to punish even the smallest detail out of place. It’s knockout soccer, it’s a derby, and it’s the kind of matchup that can reshape a season in 90 minutes.
Atlético de Madrid arrive comfortable and with recent history on their side
Atlético de Madrid head to the Middle East with a rare feeling in a derby: control. Not control of the game itself, because nothing like that is guaranteed against Real Madrid, but control of the context. Diego Simeone has only a few absences to manage.
Clément Lenglet is out due to physical issues and Nico González remains a doubt, but the core of the squad is available. That allows the coach to repeat structures, ideas, and behaviors that have already worked.
The 1–1 draw against Real Sociedad last weekend ended a four-game winning streak, but it didn’t shake the group’s confidence, much less its internal conviction. Atlético know exactly what they want to do on the field and rarely lose their way when the plan is clear. The main psychological weapon has a name: Julián Álvarez. In September, in the first derby of the season, the Argentine was the face of a historic night at the Metropolitano, scoring twice in a 5–2 win, the first time in nearly 75 years that Atlético scored five goals against their city rival.
That match guarantees nothing now, but it stands as real proof that Real Madrid can be hurt. Atlético are chasing their third Spanish Super Cup title, after lifting the trophy in 1985 and 2014, and are trying to improve a recent record that hasn’t been kind in the current tournament format, with just one semifinal win, in 2020, and eliminations in the others. Even so, the feeling is one of opportunity. On neutral ground, with the squad available and a depleted rival, Atlético know it’s hard to imagine a better scenario.
Real Madrid arrive under pressure and with doubts that won’t go away
Real Madrid come into Jeddah backed by strong recent numbers. They’ve won four straight matches across all competitions, including a 5–1 rout of Betis that eased the pressure on Xabi Alonso and pulled the team back into the fight near the top of La Liga. The problem is that the derby context ignores much of that momentum. Kylian Mbappé remains sidelined, still recovering from a knee injury. Éder Militão and Trent Alexander-Arnold are still in the medical department. Brahim Díaz is away at the Africa Cup of Nations. Dean Huijsen and Dani Carvajal are listed as doubts.
The good news is Gonzalo García. The young forward stepped up in Mbappé’s absence and delivered a perfect hat trick, becoming the youngest player to achieve that feat in La Liga in the 21st century. Talent and confidence aren’t lacking, but a derby usually demands more than individual form. Recent history also matters.
Real Madrid have beaten Atlético in regulation time just once in their last seven meetings and haven’t kept a clean sheet in this matchup since December 2021. In the Super Cup, the overall record is positive, with three titles in the current format and regular appearances in finals, but Atlético have already shown they know how to approach this kind of game without intimidation.