Barcelona are again atop La Liga. A hard-fought win against Rayo Vallecano, thanks to a Robert Lewandowski penalty, propelled Barça to the top once more after nearly two months behind their Madrid rivals. But while this might be a relief to culés, the figures present a picture that calls for restraint.
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A misleading lead?
Yes, Barça is in front, but only by goal difference. On the same 51 points as Real Madrid, Hansi Flick's side holds the top spot through figures, not dominance. Atlético de Madrid is right behind, one point adrift. In other words, one slip-up could flip it all around.
This lead was not based on raw dominance but rather by capitalizing on their rivals' blunders. Real Madrid and Atlético de Madrid blundered at the wrong moments, and Barcelona was able to piece together enough points to reclaim the lead.
But the truth is that Barça's season has had some grim warning signs. A merciless dip in form in December and January, when they picked up only five of a possible 24 points, dropped them out of contention. Their climb back to the top wasn't one of dominance, it was one of survival.
The Lewandowski effect
If one man is placing Barcelona in the frame, it's Robert Lewandowski. The Polish striker has already netted 20 in 23 league matches, entering an elite band of Barça greats including Messi, Suárez, and Eto'o. And to make it even sweeter, he's currently at the top of the Pichichi table with a three-goal gap over Kylian Mbappé.
Is defence still a problem?
While the attack may be gracing the field with a matador, Barcelona's defense remains to be seen. The numbers may be sweet, but the solidity of the defense remains in the balance. The team has conceded goals here and there throughout the season. They have conceded the most goals against their Spanish counterparts in the capital, 25, compared to 29 from Real Madrid and 16 from Atlético de Madrid.
Hansi Flick has honed the team and its defensive solidity. In order to retain their lead until May, they need to be more resolute, especially against direct rivals and in the Champions League knockout stages.
The closest title battle in years?
With 14 games still to play, this is shaping up to be one of the most brutal title battles ever. There is no room for error. A single point is all that separates the top three, and with head-to-head meetings still to come, the margins could not be tighter.
Barcelona can win La Liga. But to do so, they must sustain this winning streak and, more importantly, avoid the kind of inconsistency that nearly cost them previously in the season. The real test is proving that this advantage isn't a numbers game but a sign of a team that is actually capable of holding up the trophy.