Anfield will host a nail-biting clash this Tuesday. Liverpool and PSG will fight for a place in the Champions League quarterfinals, in a contest that history favors the English team. The Reds took the first leg, have the power of the home support, and enjoy an advantage that appears comfortable on paper. Yet the unpredictability of the Champions League does not allow for any complacency. PSG must win by a two-goal margin to qualify, a feat that, though improbable, is not impossible.
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Anfield, Liverpool, and the weighty statistics against PSG
If anything is in Liverpool's favor, other than their win in the first leg, it's the home advantage. The Reds have won all four of their Champions League home games this season, and victory would make Arne Slot the first manager to win his first five home games in the competition while in charge of an English team. That is to say, PSG is walking into a place where not many have walked out alive. The Anfield crowd is no legend, even more so on Champions League nights. And if there is one team that knows how to leverage its stadium's weight to overwhelm teams, it's Liverpool.
To make matters worse for PSG, French teams have a horrid record when facing English teams away. None of the last 15 French teams to face English teams as visitors have won. Worse, 14 of them lost. The previous French team to win on English soil was more than three years ago when PSG beat Manchester United 3-1 in 2020. It has been failure upon failure ever since, and Liverpool has everything in its power to make that continue.
Paris Saint-Germain faces an uphill task. Beating Liverpool at Anfield is tough on its own. By two goals or more, against a team that always qualifies after winning the first leg, makes it even tougher. And it is not just a feeling, the stats confirm the scale of the task. Liverpool has progressed the last 14 times it has won the first leg in Champions League knockout ties. The last time they were knocked out in this situation was more than 20 years ago, in the 2001/02 season, when they won 1-0 against Bayer Leverkusen in the first leg and then lost 4-2 in the second leg.
Hold or attack?
Liverpool doesn't need to win. They can even draw and still qualify. But how does a team that always plays on the edge manage a result? That’s Arne Slot’s big dilemma. In the first leg, Liverpool struggled. PSG created chances, dominated possession, but was stopped by Alisson, who was one of the game’s standout players. The Brazilian not only saved Liverpool defensively but also started the play that led to Elliott’s late winning goal.
Despite the victory, Liverpool put up staggeringly low attacking statistics. They only had two shots on goal. PSG may attempt to capitalize on that in the second leg. The French team may opt to sit back and defend, but if they go down by an early goal, their necessity to advance may leave them vulnerable to Liverpool's deadly counterattacks.