Italy heads into the final round of the European qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup facing a challenge that’s as harsh as it is unusual: beating Norway by nine goals to take the top spot in Group I and avoid the playoff. It’s the kind of scenario that barely needs explanation. Norway arrives with 21 points, a perfect record, a goal differential of 29 and the most productive attack in the competition.
Italy has 18 points, a differential of 12, and only one loss and it came against the Norwegians. The contrast between the two campaigns sets the tone for a Sunday that exposes both the math and the moment each team is living.
The numbers, the pressure and a team still searching for answers
The numbers make it clear why the task is almost unreachable. Norway has won every match, scored 33 times and conceded only four. Italy put together a solid run, won six games and didn’t fluctuate much, but the heavy loss in the opener created a gap that widened round after round.
Facing a team at this level and needing to score nine goals is something even the most optimistic fan struggles to process without a hint of involuntary irony. Gattuso knows it and didn’t hide. He described a 9–0 as “unthinkable,” though he refused to rule anything out. His comments aimed for balance: acknowledging the size of the challenge without draining the squad’s motivation.
In the same vein, the coach pointed out that thinking about the playoff too early would be a mistake. As he stressed, “se começarmos a pensar agora na repescagem, entraremos numa pilha de nervos.” Instead, Gattuso argued they need to stay close to the players over the next few months, talk, watch their games, create the right environment and prepare for whatever comes.
Norway’s strength and the San Siro factor
Norway arrives with the kind of sporting arguments that explain why they’re dominating the group. Beyond having the most efficient attack in the qualifiers, they also have Erling Haaland, who’s scored 14 goals and is the centerpiece of a team.
What Italy has on its side is the atmosphere. All 60,000 tickets for the match at San Siro have been sold, a sign that the fans, even fully aware of how unrealistic the task is, decided to show up. Even if the direct spot is unlikely, how Italy approaches the match will be crucial to understanding what to expect from the team if a playoff becomes necessary. Norway is the highest reference point in the group. Italy’s response will say far more than the scoreboard.