PSV Eindhoven and Juventus face off this Wednesday at Philips Stadion, battling for a spot in the Champions League Round of 16. The Italian giants hold the advantage following a 2-1 win in the first leg, but PSV hold home field and history in their favor that could give their supporters hope.
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Can the Dutch side break Juve's ruthless knockout-stage dominance? Or will the Italians demonstrate yet again that winning the first leg is all that matters to qualify?
Juventus and its invincible armor
There are not many teams better at closing out a lead in the Champions League than Juventus. The records speak for themselves: every time they've won the first leg of a knockout tie, they've progressed. That's 20 consecutive qualifications after winning the first leg.
To compound things even further for PSV, Juve have already beaten the Dutch club twice this term, a feat that only a handful of sides have managed against the same team in one Champions League campaign. If they win once more, they'll join an elite group of clubs to have whitewashed a foe three times in one edition of the tournament.
Thiago Motta, Juventus' impressive manager, can put his name alongside greats like Antonio Conte and Massimiliano Allegri by winning his second consecutive Champions League knockout match. And if he does so, this could be just the beginning of an incredible European journey.
PSV and the attempt to cause an upset
PSV's task is not easy, but neither is it impossible. The Dutch club has overturned first-leg deficits in the Champions League three times before, and the raucous atmosphere at Philips Stadion could make a huge difference. Unbeaten in their last 12 home matches in European competition, Peter Bosz's side know they will need a flawless performance if they are to have any chance.
The greatest challenge? Bosz himself has never won a Champions League knockout tie. Now, up against a coach who could make history with Juve, he'll need to come up with answers that have so far evaded him in this competition.
If PSV loses by one goal, the match goes into extra time. A 2-1 win would lead to a penalty shootout. And in such high-stakes situations as these, the pressure becomes too much for teams that are not used to this standard of competition.
Juventus must avoid the trap of playing for a draw
Juventus has experience, but they can’t afford to sit back and get comfortable with a slim advantage. The Italian side has drawn their last three away matches in the Champions League, including two goalless results. If they become too passive, they risk giving PSV the confidence and space to take control of the game.
Apart from that, when a team plays for a draw, there is little room for mistake. A single defensive error, a questionable referee decision, or even a well-executed set piece can change all that. That is why Motta and his men must treat this as just another final, not a match where they can afford to sit back.
The psychological battle and the weight of history
Champions League knockout matches are as much about winning in the mind as on the field. Juventus knows how to handle these occasions. They've faced Europe's best sides and have players who are accustomed to handling intense pressure. PSV, on the other hand, is still fighting to be a part of soccer's elite.
Juve aren't always brilliant, but they get the job done. And in a tournament where getting the job done is often more valuable than style, that's an invaluable asset. PSV can try to dominate possession, press high, and chase the result, but sooner or later, Juventus know exactly how to kill the game when the moment is right.