The CIES Football Observatory has released a new study on title odds across 29 leagues, including Europe’s big five. According to the numbers, PSG sits at 73% to win Ligue 1, Bayern Munich holds 61.4% in the Bundesliga, and Real Madrid leads La Liga with 40.6%. On the surface, those figures seem reasonable. But if you take a closer look, a few of the conclusions don’t quite match what’s happening on the field.
Real and Barça closer than it looks
CIES gives Real Madrid a 40.6% chance and Barcelona 29.6%. An 11-point gap suggests Xabi Alonso’s squad is well ahead. That’s misleading. Barça has a group strong enough to fight until the final round. Young players have broken through, reinforcements were added, and the gap with Madrid isn’t nearly as wide as the charts would have you believe.
Atlético de Madrid is listed at 22.1%. Clearly the third force, yes, but still a team that can make life complicated for the two giants. Simeone knows how to grind results, and history shows he can snatch points off Real and Barça. To paint this race as “Real on top, Barça chasing, Atlético in the shadows” is oversimplifying a league that’s almost always decided by the smallest details.
Serie A isn’t only Inter’s
In Italy, CIES names Inter as favorites at 25.6%, followed by Juventus with 18.2% and Napoli at 17.4%. Here’s where the model feels off. Putting Napoli behind Juve just doesn’t reflect the current situation. Napoli invested well, kept their core together, and they’re no one’s third choice. Inter’s solid, sure, but Napoli deserves to be on the same level.
Milan comes in at 11.3%. Allegri’s arrival raises doubts about how steady they’ll be, but with no European commitments, the squad has more time to focus solely on Serie A. That might end up making a difference. Juve and Roma appear fairly placed, but it’s hard to picture either side sustaining enough consistency to outlast Inter and Napoli over a full season.
England and Germany follow the script
In the Premier League, balance is once again the headline. Liverpool tops the list at 28.9%, with Arsenal at 18.8% and Chelsea at 16.2%. The real shock is Manchester City in fourth on just 14.4%. Even in a season of adjustments, counting out a team that’s piled up points year after year feels reckless.
Over in Germany, Bayern sits comfortably at 61.4%. Borussia Dortmund gets 8.8% and Bayer Leverkusen 8.3%. There’s no real debate here: the Bundesliga still lacks a rival capable of ending Bayern’s rule. The dominance has become almost dull, and these odds simply confirm what’s been the case for more than a decade.
And in France, PSG’s 73% is the least surprising stat of all. Monaco is next at 7.7%, but the truth is Ligue 1 remains heavily tilted in Paris’ favor.
The weight of the field over spreadsheets
CIES brings numbers, and they’re useful for spotting patterns. But math doesn’t measure confidence, inconsistency, a sudden dip in form, or a sitter missed in stoppage time. In practice, Napoli isn’t sitting behind Juve. Barcelona isn’t that far off Real Madrid. And Manchester City, of all clubs, can’t be treated as an outsider.
These studies work for comparisons and headlines, but the pitch rarely respects rigid predictions. Spreadsheets point one way; in the end, it’s the ball that decides who lifts the trophy.