Is relegation the end for Newcastle United FC?

It is the end of the Premier League season but do Newcastle United feel fine?

After two years of barely staying in the top flight, the Magpies finally seem like they may succumb to the downside of the Premier League: relegation. With just six matches to go barring a miracle Newcastle find themselves outside of the Premier League for the first time since 2009.

It is very easy to think that this might be the end for Newcastle. While the club is certainly in no way being threatened with extinction, every club that is relegated runs the risk of spending considerable time outside of the Premier League.

But as much as the term relegation has a negative connotation in English football the idea of being relegated is not the end of the world. Like many clubs before it, Newcastle can use the opportunity to have a hard reset, to get rid of the excess pieces that no longer fit, to rebuild their confidence, and hopefully rebound back into the Premier League for the following season.

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Aside from Aston Villa, there is perhaps no squad that needs a reset more than the Magpies. After dropping their flirtation with French football and manager Alan Pardew last season, Newcastle has floundered at the bottom of the Premier League standings. Injuries to Tim Krul, Jack Colback, Fabricio Coloccini, and Paul Dummett have certainly not helped the cause. But having three coaches over the past year and a collection of journeyman and youth players filing the roster are two of the many problems that this club has faced.

Of course if there is a reset with this club supporters would likely want owner Mike Ashley to be the first to go. Ashley and the supporters have had a tumultuous relationship since the Scotsman acquired a majority stake in the club in 2007. His recent acquisition of a stake in his beloved Rangers and Newcastle’s deal with loan shark company Wonga are two of the most recent examples of issues between the owner and the supporters. On the plus side, at least the naming rights deal with St. James’ Park fell through (trying to grasp at straws).

Here is the good news in the short-term for supporters: even if Ashley stays Newcastle still has a very good chance to get back into the Premier League in 2017-2018. In the club’s previous experience in the League Championship in 2009-2010 a Magpies side that had been throttled in the Premier League the previous season (7-13-18, 34 points, 18th place) crushed the competition (30-12-4, 94 points, first place). The reason for this was simple: the club got rid of the excess fat, gave younger players like Andy Carroll and Steven Taylor a chance, and found a coach in Chris Hughton who did not see that it was beneath him to coach in the League Championship.

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Whether or not Rafael Benitez stays on as manager is irrelevant. While it would certainly be nice for the club to keep a manager of Benitez’s pedigree it is not unreasonable to expect the Spanish gaffer to look at more prominent leagues. What matters most is if Benitez or whomever the club hires is on the same page with management for the difficult journey in the Sky Bet Football Championship.

Times have also changed in the League Championship. Although the infrastructure and revenue are not quite the same as the Premier League they are still much better than any other non-first division league in Europe. In December the Football League announced a three-year contract extension with Sky Sports for their television contract. The deal now includes streaming services and international broadcasts. Teams that are relegated also receive parachute payments designed to soften the blow of relegation.

All of that being said, the Sky Bet Football League Championship is no cakewalk. Clubs like Leeds, Middlesbrough, Nottingham Forest, and Queens Park Rangers were all at one time or another staples of the English top flight. Now they find themselves in the second or in the case of Sheffield the third division. For as much as Newcastle is a staple of English football their level of play is not that much different from them.

Also for as much as the league is not a poor league it also does offer the same level of financial stability as the Premier League. Exact figures have not been released on the television deal that the Football League signed with Sky Sports but suffice to say it is likely not as large as the 5 billion pound deal that the Premier League signed with Sky.

Debt is also a major problem for the division. According to the Daily Mail the league has a combined debt of about 1.1 billion pounds. What should keep Newcastle supporters up late at night are the sides with the largest debt Wanderers (182 million pounds), Queens Park Rangers (176. 9 million), Ipswich Town (82.4 million), Cardiff City (81.1 million), and Hull City (64.8 million). Each of those sides was recently relegated from the Premier League (Wanderers 2011-2012, Rangers 2014-2015, Ipswich 2001-2002, Cardiff City 2013-2014, and Hull 2014-2015) a troubling sign that a prolonged stay in the second division is a recipe for long-term financial problems.

So would relegation mean the end for Newcastle? In the end it is up to Ashley, Newcastle management, and the players to decide. The club could use it as a chance to rebuild, to give their supporters the chance to see their club at the top of the standing, and to come up with a plan. Or the club can continue flounder and just become another name of a side that was once a Premier League side and is now just another English team.