Round 10 contests: Invitations to Qatar on the line
Round 10 of the Concacaf World Cup qualifying campaign could prove to be all but conclusive while also producing some shuffling among the top three.
Surprise leader Canada plays host to second-place Team USA while No. 3 Mexico welcomes fifth-place Costa Rica to Estadio Azteca today. Fourth-place Panama gets a visit from Jamaica (sixth) while Honduras and El Salvador face off with the host “Catrachos” trying to climb out of the cellar.
The top three teams qualify directly to Qatar 2022 while the fourth-place team will face off with the Oceania Football Confederation winner in a one-game playoff.
After Sunday’s play, four games remain on the Concacaf schedule. Round 11 is scheduled for Feb. 2 while the final three matches take place during the March FIFA break.
Concacaf tournament hits home stretch
With five games still to play, it seems clear that Canada, the United States and Mexico will be heading to Qatar in November, pending an unexpected collapse. Panama has an outside shot at qualifying directly, but that would require a victory at Estadio Azteca on Wednesday.
The big match today will unfold in Hamilton, Ontario, where Canada could shake off its Cinderella status and stake a claim (unexpected though it would be) as King of Concacaf.
The Canadians have only defeated the Americans once since 1985 (a 2-0 win in the Concacaf Nations League on Oct. 15, 2019) and the hosts will not have their best player – Alphonso Davies of Bayern Munich, who was diagnosed with a mild case of myocarditis after a positive Covid test in early January.
The Maple Leaf squad is the lone unbeaten (5-4-0) and boasts an impressive 15-5 goal differential. The two neighbors played to a 1-1 draw in a Round 2 match played in Nashville, Tennessee, back on Sept. 5, 2021.
A draw would give Canada 20 points and leave Team USA with 19 while a Canadian win would move them 4 points clear of their southern neighbor. A loss risks dropping the Americans into third while a road victory would allow Uncle Sam’s men to leapfrog Canada.
The U.S. must avoid the slow starts that have characterized their qualifying campaign and cut down on mistakes at the back. Canada will likely sit back to protect against the swift American counterattacks while hoping Tajon Buchanan, Junior Hoilett, Jonathan Osorio or Cyle Larin can find holes in the U.S. defense.
Regardless of today’s outcome, Canada knows it will benefit from the fact that its two pursuers – Team USA and Mexico – play each other on March 24.
Mexico facing must-win contests
El Tri (17 points) hosts Costa Rica knowing it must win to keep Panama at bay. The fourth-place “Canaleros” are just 3 points back and will visit Mexico on Wednesday with dreams of an upset. Of course, they must take care of business against Jamaica first.
Mexico has been wildly inconsistent during the current tournament, but forward “Chucky” Lozano will return to the line-up today after serving a one-game suspension. Coach Gerardo Martino is on a hot seat, but the Aztecs should handle the struggling Ticos and enter the Panama match with confidence.
If El Tri wins today, they will definitely move up in the standings since the two teams above them play each other.
If the Canada-USA game ends in a draw and Mexico wins, Canada and Mexico will be tied for first, while El Tri will climb over the loser of the match if there is a victor in Tim Hortons Field. Mexico could actually find itself in first place if they defeat Costa Rica by 5 goals and there is a draw in Canada. That is an unlikely scenario, however, as Mexico has just 13 goals through 9 games.
The also-rans
Costa Rica (12 points) trails Panama by 2 points in the race for fourth place, but the Ticos have a tougher schedule down the stretch. In addition to Mexico, Costa Rica plays Canada and the United States, while Panama has already played Canada twice but must face Mexico and Team USA.
The Ticos will be hoping for at least a draw in Estadio Azteca today while praying that Mexico beats Panama on Wednesday.
In last place, Honduras (3 points) could be mathematically eliminated after today regardless of the outcome against visiting El Salvador (6 points). The Salvadorans will keep their chances alive with a road win, but they host Canada in Round 11 and finish out at Mexico.
Next. Mexico salvages 3 points with late heroics. dark
Jamaica (7 points) is also running out of time so a road win at Panama today is a necessity. “The Reggae Boyz” have an easier stretch run than either Costa Rica or Panama, but they will have to be near perfect to make up the 7-point advantage that Panama enjoys.