The 2025 New York Derby gets underway this Saturday. Red Bulls and NYCFC arrive at Citi Field with equal record, points, uncertainty, and pressure. Both with five wins, five losses, and three draws. Both grasping the final playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. And both aware that a single stumble in the derby could prove costly.
Perfect balance to date this season
The figures might proclaim balance, but there is nothing serene about it. NYCFC is in ninth position and having just played to a scoreless draw against DC United. Red Bulls are immediately ahead of them, despite having lost 2–1 against Nashville SC. Both teams are on 18 points, yet only Red Bulls have a favorable goal difference (+6). The change in mood comes with the location. NYCFC comes in on a home unbeaten run against the rival. Red Bulls, however, are banking on their overall performance as well as their top striker's form.
Citi Field has recently been NYCFC's fortress
The Saturday match will be the third home match for NYCFC at Citi Field of the season. And to date, the stadium has been the perfect hideout. Two wins, no goals conceded, and growing confidence when playing at Queens. That is huge in the derby. The blue side beat Red Bulls 2–1 on this same ground last season and hasn't lost at home to them in the last three regular-season meetings.
Red Bulls are relying on recent recall as history is on their side
Even though NYCFC's recent home record has been improving, head-to-head remains in Red Bulls' favor. Out of 25 MLS regular season head-to-head matches, they have won 11 and lost 10, with the other 4 finishing in a draw. Taking all competitions into account, red side's domination is even more striking: Red Bulls' 16 and 10 against NYCFC wins. Their recent match is even a pleasant memory for the red side. The sides met in 2024 in the Eastern Conference semifinals, once more at Citi Field. Red Bulls won, 2–0 on a Felipe Carballo score. It was the first playoff meeting of the clubs. That still counts for something.
Other than the natural tension, the standings add to the pressure. Both teams are even. A tie preserves equilibrium. But a loss can knock either team out of playoff contention. And the impact of losing a derby like this often doesn't lie on the scoreboard. It destroys confidence, disrupts rhythm, and unsettles the locker room.