Italy have won all eight previous encounters with Estonia, scoring 25 goals and conceding just two.
Of all 42 nations the Azzurri have faced seven or more times, they only boast a 100% winning record against Malta and Estonia.
Estonia vs Italy preview
Are Italy set to miss out on a third successive World Cup? Well, two matches into Gennaro Gattuso's tenure, the early signs are that this team are going to be exciting, if nothing else. In Gattuso's first match in charge, the Azzurri beat Estonia 5-0 in Bergamo, all the goals coming after half time, featuring a Mateo Retegui brace. Three nights later, Italy were involved in a truly bonkers game, defeating Israel 5-4 in Debrecen, conceding in both the 87th and then 89th minutes, seemingly throwing the points away, only to win it via Sandro Tonali's stoppage time strike.
That made it three wins in a row in qualifying for the four-time world champions, but their fate is out of their hands. Having been hammered 3-0 in Oslo in their group opener, Italy remain six points adrift the Group I leaders with a game in hand. However, Norway's goal difference is 16 superior so, even if Italy win all four of their remaining games, including facing the Norwegians at San Siro next month, that may not be enough. Thus, unless Norway slip-up, they'll enter the play-offs once again, having been ousted by Sweden and North Macedonia at that stage during the last two cycles. Nevertheless, if Italy harbour any hopes of pinching top spot, this trip to Lilleküla Stadium is simply must win.
As for Estonia, they've lost four out of five in this group, their sole victory coming against Moldova back in March; Rasmus Peetson, Rauno Sappinen and Mattias Käit the scorers in Chișinău.
However, that is one of only eight victories the Blueshirts have enjoyed in 48 competitive outings, only managing to beat Moldova, Azerbaijan, Malta, San Marino, Belarus and Greece since October 2017, losing 26 of their last 30 qualifiers during this period. Thus, as they did at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia just last month, Italy should cruise to victory in Tallinn.
Estonia vs Italy head-to-head record
- Matches Played: 8.
- Estonia Wins: Zero. Draws: Zero. Italy Wins: 8.
Estonia team news
Striker Henri Anier is suspended, having been shown his second yellow card of the campaign in Bergamo.
So, the squad's top-scorer Rauno Sappinen will lead the line, while captain Karol Mets will be hoping to add to his 100 international caps.
Estonia predicted lineup vs Italy: (4-5-1): Hein; Schjønning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotši, Saliste; Käit, Robert Shein, Palumets, Sinyavskiy; Kristal, Sappinen.
Estonia player to watch vs Italy
Goalkeeper Karl Hein is Estonia's star man, currently on loan at Werder Bremen from Arsenal. The 23 year old has already accumulated 41 international caps, despite having made only 45 senior club appearances in his career to date. He will need to be at his best to keep out Italy in Tallinn.
Italy team news
Gennaro Gattuso deployed an ultra-attacking 4-2-4 formation for his first two matches in charge, likely to stick with that; it remains to be seen how that works against tougher opposition!
So, Mateo Retegui will continue to partner Moise Kean in attack, while scorer at Nagyerdei Stadion Sandro Tonali got the nod wide-left against Israel, set to do the same here, given that natural wingers Matteo Politano and Mattia Zaccagni both injured.
Goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma will captain the side, while Arsenal's Riccardo Calafiori is also set to start, with Destiny Udogie of Spurs back in the squad following a knee issue.
Italy predicted lineup vs Estonia: (4-4-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Calafiori, Bastoni, Dimarco; Locatelli, Barella, Orsolini, Tonali; Retegui, Kean.
Italy player to watch vs Estonia
Moise Kean's three goals across September's two fixtures takes his tally to ten for the Azzurri, so can the Fiorentina forward add to this at Lilleküla Stadium on Saturday?
Estonia vs Italy prediction
Given that Gattuso's Italy are involved, this clash in Tallinn should guarantee goals, but we are backing the Azzurri to swat Estonia aside at the A. Le Coq Arena: Estonia 1-4 Italy.
Estonia vs Italy FAQs - World Cup qualifier
How to watch Estonia vs Italy in World Cup qualification on TV channel?
Estonia vs Italy in World Cup qualification will be available on the following TV channels;
- UK: Amazon Prime Video PPV - £2.49.
- USA: Fox Sports & fuboTV
- Canada: DAZN Canada
How to watch Estonia vs Italy in World Cup qualification on live streaming?
Estonia vs Italy in World Cup qualification will be available on the following streaming services;
- UK: Amazon Prime Video PPV - £2.49.
- USA: Foxsports.com & fuboTV
- Canada: DAZN Canada
What is the date and kick-off time for Estonia vs Italy in World Cup qualification?
Estonia vs Italy takes place on Saturday 11 October 2025, with kick off at 19:45 (BST), 14:45 (EDT) & 11:45 (PDT).