Italy have won all seven previous meetings with Estonia, scoring 20 goals and conceding only two. Of all nations Gli Azzurri have faced seven or more times, Estonia and Malta are the only two against whom they boast a 100% record.
Italy vs Estonia preview
Can Italy really fail to qualify for yet another World Cup? Between 1934 and 2014, Italy featured at 18 of the 19 World Cups, 1958 the only one they missed out on, reaching eight semi-finals and six finals, crowned champions of the world on four occasions. However, after failing to qualify for both Russia 2018 and Qatar 2022, beaten in play-offs by Sweden and North Macedonia, could this really happen again? Well, back in June, Gli Azzurri endured a nightmare start to this campaign, demolished 3-0 by their main group rivals Norway in Oslo, all the goals at Ullevål coming before half time.
Straight after full time, Luciano Spalletti confirmed he had been sacked by the FIGC but, in a bizarre turn of events, oversaw their 2-0 victory over Moldova three days later; Giacomo Raspadori and then Andrea Cambiaso the scorers in Reggio Emilia. Since then, Gennaro Gattuso has been appointed as the new head coach, his sixth job in six years, with this set to be his first game in charge.
Given that Norway lead the way in Group I on maximum points, if Italy are going to automatically qualify, all of their matches are must win, including when the top two meet at San Siro on the final matchday. Even then, it won't be easy, given that head-to-head is the primary tiebreaker. Should Gli Azzurri fail to top this group, they would once again find themselves in the play-offs, giving supporters nightmare flashbacks. Thus, Italy simply cannot slip up in Bergamo on Friday night.
Well, this does seem unlikely considering Estonia's minnow status. The Blueshirts did claim a rare qualification victory back in March, defeating Moldova 3-2; Rasmus Peetson, Rauno Sappinen and then Mattias Käit all scoring in Chișinău. Nevertheless, Jürgen Henn's side have lost their other three fixtures, twice beaten by Israel, before a 1-0 loss at the hands of Norway in Tallinn last time out.
Overall, Estonia have now won just two of their last 29 European qualifiers, beating only Moldova and Belarus since October 2017. Thus, the hosts should cruise to victory at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia.
Italy vs Estonia head-to-head record
- Matches Played: 7.
- Italy Wins: 7. Draws: Zero. Estonia Wins: Zero.
Italy team news
Gennaro Gattuso is without Destiny Udogie and Gianluca Scamacca due to injury, but it'll be interesting to see how much he changes, given that this is his first match at the helm.
Gianluigi Donnarumma will win his 75th cap, chasing down his namesake and idol Gianluigi Buffon's all-time record of 176. Newcastle's Sandro Tonali will start in midfield, while Giovanni Leoni, who has just joined Liverpool, is hoping to make his senior international debut this week.
Mateo Retegui, back in Bergamo, won last season's Capocannoniere award, but has since joined Saudi side Al-Qadsiah for €65 million, so how will that impact his national team prospects?
Italy predicted lineup vs Estonia: (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Di Lorenzo, Tonali, Locatelli, Barella, Dimarco; Retegio, Raspadori.
Italy player to watch vs Estonia
Giacomo Raspadori, who joined Atlético Madrid last month, will be aiming to add to his nine international goals, three of which have come in the last year.
Estonia team news
Goalkeeper Karl Hein should be prepared for a busy night's work. He has recently joined Werder Bremen on loan from Arsenal, set to earn a 40th international cap, despite being only 23 years old.
Out field, Mattias Käit will be deployed at the base of midfield, one of only three squad members who can boast 60 or more caps.
Estonia predicted lineup vs Italy: (4-4-2): Hein; Schjønning-Larsen, Kuusk, Paskotši, Saliste; Käit, Robert Shein, Palumets, Sinyavskiy; Anier, Sappinen.
Estonia player to watch vs Italy
If the Blueshirts are going to upset the odds in Bergamo, Rauno Sappinen is their most-likely scorer, having bagged 12 international goals to date, albeit the most recent of these came in Bakı agaianst Azerbaijan over two years ago.
Italy vs Estonia prediction
We're fully backing Italy for a comfortable victory at Stadio Atleti Azzurri d'Italia, expecting Gli Azzurri to run riot against a very poor Estonian outfit on Friday night in Bergamo: Italy 5-0 Estonia.
Italy vs Estonia FAQs - World Cup qualifier
How to watch Italy vs Estonia in World Cup qualification on TV channel?
Italy vs Estonia in World Cup qualification will be available on the following TV channels;
- UK: Amazon Prime Video PPV - £2.49.
- USA: Fox Sports & fuboTV
- Canada: DAZN Canada
How to watch Italy vs Estonia in World Cup qualification on live streaming?
Italy vs Estonia in World Cup qualification will be available on the following streaming services;
- UK: Amazon Prime Video PPV - £2.49.
- USA: Foxsports.com & fuboTV
- Canada: DAZN Canada
What is the date and kick-off time for Italy vs Estonia in World Cup qualification?
Italy vs Estonia takes place on Friday 5 September 2025, with kick off at 19:45 (BST), 14:45 (EDT) & 11:45 (PDT).