How important is a Win in the 1st Game of Final Round of CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying?
By Doug Smith
The format of the final round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying has changed over the years, but there has always been a psychological edge to getting off on the right foot. However, the prevailing thought is the games in your home country are more important and escaping the away matches with a point is the goal. This year CONCACAF stuck with the hexagonal format when they were notified by FIFA that they would not earn another entry into the World Cup. Since 1974 winning the first match has gotten a team on the right foot, but does not determine the ultimate outcome. Please note this does not take into account home and away matches, simply the first match of the final round regardless of format.
In 1974 six teams were a part of the final round of qualifying. The first matches pitted Honduras against Trinidad and Tobago, Mexico and Guatemala, and Haiti versus Curaçao. Honduras would get the win as well as the home nation Haiti. Honduras would manage only three more points over the remaining games while Haiti would go on to secure the only qualifying spot for CONCACAF at the time. They would go 3-0-1 to get to their only World Cup.
El Salvador, Guatemala, and Mexico all got victories in the opening matches of the final round for 1978 World Cup qualifying. Mexico cruised to the qualifying spot including an 8-1 win over Suriname. El Salvador and Guatemala finished third and fifth out of six, respectively.
Two CONCACAF countries were represented at the 1982 World Cup in Spain. Honduras and El Salvador qualified but only Honduras won its opening match. El Salvador was blanked 1-0 against Canada. Mexico also dominated Cuba in their opening match. Mexico and Canada would finish third and fourth respectively.
The World Cup of 1986 was held in Mexico so the home nation would be represented. In the six team final round for CONCACAF, Canada was the only team to win the opening match and they did finish first advancing to the World Cup.
Jan. 25, 2013; Casa Grande, AZ, USA: Sporting KC head coach Peter Vermes against the New England Revolution during a preseason game at Grande Sports World. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
The set up was a bit different in 1990 as teams would play their two legs back to back. For instance, the first two matches played were between Guatemala and Costa Rica. The next two matches were then between Costa Rica and the United States, the eventual qualifiers. This was considered a bit of a rebirth for the U.S. team with young players like Peter Vermes. Essentially Guatemala was the only country to win the opening match.
The 1994 World Cup was held across the United States giving the host a birth. El Salvador was the only team in the four country playoff to win the opening match but would finish third.Mexico would win its opening matches in 1998 on the way to qualifying for France as the group stage expanded to 32 from 24 teams. Jamaica and the U.S. drew their opening match but would both make it into the expanded field.
Jamaica and the United States won their opening matches in the final round of the 2002 CONCACAF qualifying final round as part of a hex format. Costa Rica, Mexico, and the United States would advance to the World Cup.
Four qualifiers from CONCACAF went to Germany in 2006 with Costa Rica, Mexico, Trinidad and Tobago, and the U.S. qualifying. The U.S. and Mexico won their first match.
The U.S., Honduras and Mexico advanced in 2010 with only the U.S. winning the first match. Costa Rica beat Honduras in their opening match.
So what does this all mean? Over the last ten final round qualifications in CONCACAF 16 teams have won their first match. Nine of those teams, or 56%, have advanced to the cup. However, in that time there have been 20 CONCACAF members represented. Still in the expanded group stage format of the World Cup, winning the first match has meant that your team has at least a 50% chance of moving on.
Honestly, winning or losing the first match doesn’t necessarily determine the final result. The hex allows for a turn around, but it does put your country in a good position to head to the World Cup. The same would go for the U.S. should they beat Honduras tomorrow.
Thanks to rsssf.com and concacaf.com for the statistics.